A cursory review of existing impact study literature of 2004/2005 Nigerian bank consolidation, of which mergers and acquisitions were the main policy thrust, revealed that most studies concluded that the policy has had a tractable and significant impact on bank intermediation, deposits mobilization and management of loans and advances as well as bank performance. However, a critical analysis of the literature showed that majority of existing studies were neither founded on a sound theoretical premise nor their models sophisticated enough to distil the 'real' licy from the superficial and added-up effect of pooling capital bases, deposits, credit balances and book profits of several banks. To overcome the observed shortcomings, full estimated generalized least-square (FEGLS) and fixed effect-least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) models were developed. A panel data consisting of 11-year time series data, covering six stratified randomly selected consolidated banks in Nigeria was used in the study. While FEGLS was designed to isolate the 'pure' impact of the policy on bank performance using the Chow test procedure, the LSDV model was deployed to test the hypothesis that the overall impact was not evenly spread across banks. The results of the empirical estimation seem to cast doubt on the validity of the general conclusion of past studies -that the policy has had 'real' and significant impact on bank intermediation, portfolio management and performance. The study observed that this conclusion probably due to the short-term nature of the period covered by most of the studies and recommended the use robust methodologies by subsequent research on the subject.Keywords: Bank consolidation, Intermediation, Chow test, Mergers and acquisitions, Nigeria
IntroductionAs part of the overall banking reform intended to foster a comprehensive and healthy financial system to support economic development and avoid systemic distress, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in July 2004 directed all banks to shore up their minimum paid up capital from two to 25 billion of Naira before the end of December 2005. In particular, banks were encouraged to explore all possible options, including merger and acquisition. By the end of the exercise, the number of banks in operation reduced from 89 to just 25.Eight years after, another round of banking reforms is well under way. As expressed in the Financial System Strategy 2020 (FSS2020), this reform is intended to not only consolidate the gains of the previous reform but to reposition the sector to a play a leading role in repositioning Nigeria as one of the top twenty economies in the world by the year 2020. However, the question is what are these gains that the new reform purports to build upon? Has the 2004/2005 bank reform recorded any meaningful impact on bank operation especially in terms of bank efficiency, shareholders' wealth and the real sector of the economy, in the first place? Indeed, there have been a number of attempts to provide an answer to this question in the past few years...