Barnett Shale Production Outlook

Abstract

Summary We developed a production-outlook model on the basis of an interdisciplinary analysis of production data from more than 15,000 wells and geologic data on the Barnett play. The model is the most granular to date because it incorporates 10 tiers of varying productivity and well economics of average wells by tier; it covers close to 8,000 square-mile blocks across partly drained and undrilled acreage, divided between low-Btu and high-Btu segments, and uses drillwell potential by tier for the total area; and it is unique in its use of production profiles on the basis of transient linear drainage. Drilling pace is adjusted to changes in natural-gas price relative to well economics, historical attrition rates, and logistical constraints. We analyze scenarios and conduct a simulation analysis on the basis of reasonable ranges for natural-gas price, remaining acreage developable in partly drained and undrilled blocks, improvement in technology and well cost performance, and economic limit for shutting in a well. The Barnett is the most exploited shale play in the world; cumulative production to 2012 is 13 Tcf. Our analysis indicates remaining recovery of approximately 2.5 times of cumulative production in the base case, but this is subject to many uncertainties. Base case results are consistent with actual production in 2011 and 2012.

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Gas Production in the Barnett Shale

“…[T]he Barnett shale might hold 10 tcf of technically recoverable natural gas (depending on eventual size of the productive trend, distribution of well performance, and intensity at which the play is developed.)" Patzek 2019 increased this estimate to 26 Tscf in 2011 in his "high gas rate scenario" (pages [4][5].…”

Comment on ‘Life cycle environmental impacts of UK shale gas’ by L. Stamford and A. Azapagic. Applied Energy, 134, 506–518, 2014

“…The same point, that 93 output should be considered for developments as a whole, not on a well-by-well basis, is equally 94 applicable to lifecycle analysis. The recent study by Browning et al [12], which utilized data from 95 more than 15,000 Barnett Shale wells drilled by 2010, determined mean EUR values for different 96 localities ranging from 0.4 to 4.3 bcf, the principal factor governing this variation being the rate of 97 decline of shale gas output once production has begun (e.g., [13], [14]). Other factors, such as 98 taxation policies and the pricing of other energy resources, including alternative sources of shale gas, 99 also influence the point of diminishing returns at which no further attempt is made to produce shale 100 gas from any particular well (e.g., [15] proposal, careful estimation of ultimate recovery before commencing drilling in order to avoid high 161 emissions associated with a low-output well, would appear to mean a requirement for detailed 162 analysis of each proposed well site to estimate its shale gas production, followed presumably by 163 approval of these production estimates by a designated regulatory authority.…”

Development of Shale Gas Prediction Models for Long-Term Production and Economics Based on Early Production Data in Barnett Reservoir

“…It was first discovered in 1981 with a high estimated reserve of over 5.6 trillion cubic meters of gas [16,18]. An approximation of 1.25 trillion cubic meters of gas can be technically recovered from the Barnett reservoir [19][20][21]. Compared to the other major shale gas plays in the USA, the Barnett shale has the lowest initial gas production rate and the lowest decline rate after 5 years of production [14,15].…”