Barrier Island Reconfiguration Leads to Rapid Erosion and Relocation of a Rural Alaska Community

Buzard, R.M.; Kinsman, N. E. M.; Maio, Christopher V.; Erikson, Li H.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Anderson, Scott; Glenn, Richard; Overbeck, J.R.

doi:10.2112/jcoastres-d-22-00093.1

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 46 publications

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“…The significant reconfiguration of Arctic barrier islands has already led to the erosion and relocation of a rural Alaskan community [104]. The melting of the permafrost underlying the wide, tundra-covered coastal plain of the Arctic North Slope is causing collapse of the land surface and releases of methane gas [105]. Glaciers melting inland from the coast are causing wintertime river flows to rise [106,107].…”

Section: Arctic Coastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Morphodynamics and Climate Change: A Review of Recent Advances

Wright,

Thom

2023

JMSE

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The shape of the coast and the processes that mold it change together as a complex system. There is constant feedback among the multiple components of the system, and when climate changes, all facets of the system change. Abrupt shifts to different states can also take place when certain tipping points are crossed. The coupling of rapid warming in the Arctic with melting sea ice is one example of positive feedback. Climate changes, particularly rising sea temperatures, are causing an increasing frequency of tropical storms and “compound events” such as storm surges combined with torrential rains. These events are superimposed on progressive rises in relative sea level and are anticipated to push many coastal morphodynamic systems to tipping points beyond which return to preexisting conditions is unlikely. Complex systems modeling results and long-term sets of observations from diverse cases help to anticipate future coastal threats. Innovative engineering solutions are needed to adapt to changes in coastal landscapes and environmental risks. New understandings of cascading climate-change-related physical, ecological, socioeconomic effects, and multi-faceted morphodynamic systems are continually contributing to the imperative search for resilience. Recent contributions, summarized here, are based on theory, observations, numerically modeled results, regional case studies, and global projections.

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Section: Arctic Coastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Morphodynamics and Climate Change: A Review of Recent Advances

Wright,

Thom

2023

JMSE

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Permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion are transforming Alaska’s Arctic coastal zone

Creel,

Guimond,

Jones

et al. 2024

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Arctic shorelines are vulnerable to climate change impacts as sea level rises, permafrost thaws, storms intensify, and sea ice thins. Seventy-five years of aerial and satellite observations have established coastal erosion as an increasing Arctic hazard. However, other hazards at play—for instance, the cumulative impact that sea-level rise and permafrost thaw subsidence will have on permafrost shorelines—have received less attention, preventing assessments of these processes’ impacts compared to and combined with coastal erosion. Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for such assessments because of the high-density observations of topography, coastal retreat rates, and permafrost characteristics, and importance to Indigenous communities and oilfield infrastructure. Here, we produce 21st-century projections of Arctic shoreline position that include erosion, permafrost subsidence, and sea-level rise. Focusing on the ACP, we merge 5 m topography, satellite-derived coastal lake depth estimates, and empirical assessments of land subsidence due to permafrost thaw with projections of coastal erosion and sea-level rise for medium and high emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s AR6 Report. We find that by 2100, erosion and inundation will together transform the ACP, leading to 6-8x more land loss than coastal erosion alone and disturbing 8-11x more organic carbon. Without mitigating measures, by 2100, coastal change could damage 40 to 65% of infrastructure in present-day ACP coastal villages and 10 to 20% of oilfield infrastructure. Our findings highlight the risks that compounding climate hazards pose to coastal communities and underscore the need for adaptive planning for Arctic coastlines in the 21st century.

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Barrier Island Reconfiguration Leads to Rapid Erosion and Relocation of a Rural Alaska Community

Cited by 2 publications

References 46 publications

Coastal Morphodynamics and Climate Change: A Review of Recent Advances

Coastal Morphodynamics and Climate Change: A Review of Recent Advances

Permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion are transforming Alaska’s Arctic coastal zone

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