Barriers to the investment in the Concentrated Solar Power sector in Morocco: A foresight approach using the Cross Impact Analysis for a large number of events

Medina, Eva; Borda, Rafael de Arce; Mahía, Ramón

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2015.06.005

Cited by 21 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…In the second cycle of the Delphi, the cross-impact analysis (CIA) method is used (Choi et al , 2007; Gordon and Hayward, 1968; Medina et al , 2015; Panula-Ontto, 2019), to prioritize the driving forces according to the dependence–influence criteria. An intrinsic feature of the Delphi technique is the anonymity of the responses of the participants, which maintains the possibility of achieving a particular driving force (Linstone and Turoff, 2002; Panula-Ontto et al , 2016; Panula-Ontto et al , 2018; Thorleuchter et al , 2010).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry

Alizadeh

Soltanisehat

2020

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035. Design/methodology/approach The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis. Findings Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors. Originality/value The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry

Alizadeh

Soltanisehat

2020

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“…However, it has been shown to be equally useful in other areas. For instance, it has been applied to analyse socio-economic problems, such as the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options (Hayashi et al, 2006), spread of HIV/AIDS (Pedamallu et al, 2012) and barriers to investment in solar energy (Medina et al, 2015). CIA identifies directional causal relationships between the relevant variables and helps to assess the strengths of these relationships (Twiss, 1992).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdependencies in security of electricity supply

Osorio

Ackere

Larsen

2017

Energy

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The analysis of security of electricity supply (SoES) is particularly complex due to, among others, the liberalisation process and the increasing penetration of renewable energies. Larsen et al. (2016) propose a framework based on twelve dimensions to evaluate SoES for a single jurisdiction. However, actions aimed at improving one dimension might impact others negatively, adversely affecting the overall system. Understanding how these dimensions are interrelated is thus a prerequisite for appropriate planning and resource allocation. We apply a Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to these twelve dimensions to determine the degree to which the different dimensions depend on each other. From this we derive an influence diagram to visualise the interdependencies and a scatter plot to categorise the dimensions as independent, driver, connector or outcome. The connecting dimensions are the central elements of the feedback mechanisms of SoES, reinforcing or balancing the effect of other dimensions. Actions targeting the dimensions categorised as drivers or connectors are potentially the more effective ones a regulator can take, as the consequences will gradually ripple through the system. They affect systemwide performance, but not necessarily in the desired direction. Having an integral view of the dimensions' interdependencies provides a better understanding of the higher-order changes an intervention may cause. This enables policymakers and regulators to identifying where in the system to intervene to achieve the desired effect with the least amount of resources and with as few undesirable side-effects as possible.

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“…To determine the conditional probabilities, the expert will then compare this scenario's probability with the scenario if this policy cannot be implemented on the same Likert scale. The standardization techniques as follows (Medina, 2015):…”

Section: Scenario Analysis For Mangrove Management Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…where, is the score given by expert , while the max and min values represent the maximum and minimum values of the Likert scale, respectively, in this analysis, it is necessary to ensure that the answers given by each expert are consistent. To do so, the SMIC method is used in this analysis because it has the advantage of providing a free software program (the SMIC-Prob-Expert 2 ), which is user-friendly, the procedure is very simple and the results obtained are usually easily interpreted (Godet, 2006;Medina et al, 2015). The determination of input matrices for the SMIC-Prob-Expert analysis was a very difficult task.…”

Section: Scenario Analysis For Mangrove Management Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mangrove Forest Restoration by Fisheries Communities in Lampung Bay: A study based on perceptions, willingness to pay, and management strategy

Firdaus

Hatanaka

Saville

2021

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Mangroves provide benefits and various services to local communities living along coastal areas, particularly fishery communities. Fishery community perceptions are significant in determining attitudes towards improving mangrove conditions, which can also be addressed through restoration activities. This research was conducted to analyze fisheries communities perceptions, willingness to pay (WTP) for mangroves restoration, and mangrove forest management strategies. Field surveys were conducted from July-August 2019 and February-March 2020. Primary data were collected from respondents in four regions (Kalianda Regency, South Lampung Regency, Bandar Lampung City, and Pesawaran Regency) in Lampung Province, Indonesia, which consist of fishers, shrimp farmers, crab and wood seekers, and finfish farmers. The respondents were 193 people, and four experts were involved in the policy scenario analysis. Results revealed a gap in the value of WTP among fishery community groups, in which the average value for fishers is lower than shrimp farmers. The years of formal education significantly influenced the WTP for mangrove restoration. Based on the scenario analysis, scenario 01 become a priority strategy, where four policies (P1 = Mangrove ecotourism development in Lampung Bay; P2 = Mangrove knowledge education and training on processing mangrove based products; P3 = Restoration and conservation of mangrove forests; and P4 = Community-based management for mangrove forests utilization) show high likelihoods to be simultaneously implemented for mangroves management, with mangrove ecotourism policy as the most decisive policy. For future research, other explanatory variables can be added, such as information on family member characteristics, and to develop a bottom-up policy scenario by identifying and involving the role of the local community.

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Barriers to the investment in the Concentrated Solar Power sector in Morocco: A foresight approach using the Cross Impact Analysis for a large number of events

Cited by 21 publications

References 46 publications

Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry

Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry

Interdependencies in security of electricity supply

Mangrove Forest Restoration by Fisheries Communities in Lampung Bay: A study based on perceptions, willingness to pay, and management strategy

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