Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy

Marzocchi, Warner; García, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Mastellone, Maria Laura; Ruocco, Angela Di

doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0092-x

Cited by 249 publications

(191 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Major catastrophes however remind us that multi-risk is not simply the sum of individual risks but that correlations between natural hazards, technological hazards and our complex socioeconomic networks lead to greater risks (e.g., 2005 hurricane Katrina, USA; 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland; 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan). Innovative methods have been proposed in recent years to tackle the problem of hazard interactions (e.g., Marzocchi et al 2012) and of other dynamic aspects of risk, such as time-dependent vulnerability and exposure (e.g., Selva 2013) or network failures (e.g., Adachi and Ellingwood 2008). However, so far, only a limited number of scenario-based and/or site-specific multi-risk studies have been proposed due to the difficulty and novelty of the task.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our approach differs from site-specific and scenario-based studies (e.g., Adachi and Ellingwood 2008;Marzocchi et al 2012;Selva 2013) in that we do not define any specific hazard or risk interaction but a framework to implement any type of interaction. With such an objective, real interaction processes have to be abstracted to more basic concepts and engineering methods by-passed.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

2014

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Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability-high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

2014

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“…So far, due to the overwhelming complexity of natural and socioeconomic systems, multi-risk scenarios have been mostly limited to one or two specific interactions at a given site. For instance, cascade failures across water and electricity networks due to an earthquake in Memphis, USA [60] or an industrial accident triggered by volcanic ash load at Casalnuovo, Italy [13]. Attempts at a comprehensive treatment of multi-risk approaches remain at the generic level [8,61].…”

Section: Phase 3: Multi-risk Knowledge Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While new theories and methods for multi-risk assessment have been developed in the past decade (e.g., [8][9][10][11][12][13]), the same is not true for multi-risk governance [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into Policy

2017

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Multi-risk environments are characterized by domino effects that often amplify the overall risk. Those include chains of hazardous events and increasing vulnerability, among other types of correlations within the risk process. The recently developed methods for multi-hazard and risk assessment integrate interactions between different risks by using harmonized procedures based on common metrics. While the products of these assessments, such as multi-hazard and -risk indexes, maps, cascade scenarios, or warning systems provide innovative and effective information, they also pose specific challenges to policy makers and practitioners due to their novel cross-disciplinary aspects. In this paper we discuss the institutional barriers to the adoption of multi-risk approaches, summarizing the results of the fieldwork conducted in Italy and Guadeloupe and of workshops with disaster risk reduction practitioners from eleven European countries. Results show the need for a clear identification of responsibilities for the implementation of multi-risk approaches, as institutional frameworks for risk reduction remain to this day primarily single-risk centered. Authorities are rarely officially responsible for the management of domino effects between e.g., tsunamis and industrial accidents, earthquake and landslides, floods and electricity network failures. Other barriers for the implementation of multi-risk approaches include the limited measures to reduce exposure at the household level, inadequate financial capacities at the local level and limited public-private partnerships, especially in case of interactions between natural and industrial risks. Adapting the scale of institutions to that of multi-risk environments remains a major challenge to better mainstream multi-risk approaches into policy. To address it, we propose a multi-risk governance framework, which includes the phases of observation, social and institutional context analysis, generation of multi-risk knowledge and stakeholder engagement processes. Yet, more research is needed in order to test the framework and to identify the hallmark characteristics of effective multi-risk governance.

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“…The combination of a tsunami event with an earthquake event (that could be close in time and could generate a tsunami itself) is not investigated here and the amplification of the catastrophic effects on the vulnerable elements and exposed elements during the tsunami impact phase is also not examined in this study. The appropriate analysis in this case requires a multi-risk assessment (Marzocchi et al, 2012) and was not the primary scope of this PTHA application.…”

Section: A Grezio Et Al: Tsunami Risk Assessments In Messina Sicilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily – Italy

Grezio

Gasparini

Marzocchi

et al. 2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

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Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy

Cited by 249 publications

References 20 publications

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into Policy

Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily – Italy

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