Battered Women’s Perceptions of Risk Versus Risk Factors and Instruments in Predicting Repeat Reassault

Heckert, D. Alex; Gondolf, Edward W.

doi:10.1177/0886260504265619

Cited by 142 publications

(140 citation statements)

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“…Evaluation of US Risk Assessments Campbell's Danger Assessment has been independently tested in two studies (Bennett et al 2000 andHeckert andGondolf 2004). There was some predictive validity for re-assault, rather than lethality, but there was also a high rate of false positives.…”

Section: Earlier Studies On Prior Record Of Domestic Abuse Predictingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yet the evaluation of risk assessment tools is also in its infancy. While risk factors have been identified, their accuracy in terms of predictions has been low, with many false positives and false negatives (Heckert and Gondolf 2004). A risk assessment approach known as SPECSS+ (Separation, pregnancy, escalation, community issues, stalking and sexual assault) was introduced in most forces including Thames Valley during 2005 and.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Police Attempts to Predict Domestic Murder and Serious Assaults: Is Early Warning Possible Yet?

Thornton¹

2017

Camb J Evid Based Polic

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Research Question What facts known to police, if any, could have predicted the 118 domestic and family murders and near-murders in the Thames Valley (UK) police area over a recent three-year period? Data Thames Valley Police records were examined for 118 victims and 120 offenders in all 118 cases of Bdeadly^domestic violence: murder, attempted murder, manslaughter, and grievous bodily harm with intent in calendar years 2007 and 2009 and other records of police contact with those persons prior to the cases identified for this prediction study were also coded, as well as the PNC records of a case-control sample of 150 male and 100 female offenders in less serious violent crimes. Local police risk assessments, including the DASH protocol, were coded for deadly violence cases with prior police contact. Methods Risk assessments made during prior police contacts with domestic violence cases during the time period were coded for accuracy of forecasts. Characteristics of offenders and victims in deadly violence were also compared to characteristics of the case-control sample, calculating the relative-risk ratios between the two groups for the presence of factors that further research could explore as possible predictors of deadly domestic violence. Findings In 55% of deadly violence cases, there was no prior recorded contact by police with the victim; a further 21% of victims had only one prior police contact. Not one of the 13 murder cases with any prior police contact had ever been assessed by responding officers as Bhigh risk^based on DASH or its predecessor, for a 100% false negative rate of prediction on risk of murder and an 89% false negative rate for any deadly violence (only 6 cases with prior contact had been classified as high risk). In contrast, during the same time period, 2721 other domestic violence cases yielded Bhigh-risk^assessments but were not actually followed by deadly violence. Yet the case control study found male offenders who committed serious domestic assaults were Camb J Evid Based Polic (2017) 1:64-80 DOI 10.1007/s41887-017-0011-1 * Sara Thornton Sara.Thornton@npcc.pnn.police.uk 1 National Police Chiefs' Council, England, UK over three times more likely than other violent offenders to be have had markers of suicidal tendencies. Conclusions Predicting deadly domestic violence based on intelligence from prior police contacts does not appear possible at present, given these findings that less than half of these cases had prior police contact, and that when contact did occur, the relationships were assessed by the DASH protocol or its predecessor as not high risk in 89% of those cases. A more promising predictor for male offenders in these cases, even without prior contact, may be a prior marker for suicide (ideation, threats or attempts), but use of that marker requires further research on the extent to which it can be identified before the deadly violence occurs, either from police contacts or other sources, so that more intensive efforts can be undertaken to prevent deadly violence in...

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Section: Earlier Studies On Prior Record Of Domestic Abuse Predictingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Police Attempts to Predict Domestic Murder and Serious Assaults: Is Early Warning Possible Yet?

Thornton¹

2017

Camb J Evid Based Polic

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“…2008; Heckert & Gondolf, 2004;Hilton, et al, 2004), as is the effect of separation or the threat of separation on DA (Weisz, Tolman, & Saunders, 2000).…”

Section: Running Head: Individual Predictive Validity Of the Uk's DV mentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploration of the risk factors contained within the UK’s existing domestic abuse risk assessment tool (DASH): do these risk factors have individual predictive validity regarding recidivism?

Almond

McManus

Brian

et al. 2017

JACPR

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Purpose-Risk factors contained in the existing UK Domestic Abuse (DA) risk assessment tool (DASH) were explored for individual predictive validity of DA recidivism using data from Devon and Cornwall Constabulary.Methodology-1441 DA perpetrators were monitored over a 12 month period, and 270 (18.7%) went on to commit a further DA offence. The individual risk factors which were associated and predictive of increased risk of recidivism were identified.Findings-Only four of the individual risk factors were significantly associated with an increased risk of DA recidivism, 'criminal history'; 'problems with alcohol', 'separation', and 'frightened'. Therefore, 21 of the risk factor items analysed could not discriminate between non-recidivist and recidivist perpetrators. Only two risk factors were able to significantly predict the recidivist group when compared to the non-recidivist group. These were identified as 'criminal history' and 'separated'. Of those who did commit a further DA offence in the following 12 months, 133 were violent and 137 were non-violent. The risk factors associated with these types of recidivism are identified Originality-This is the first large scale validation of the individual risk factors contained within the UK's DA risk assessment tool. It should be noted that the validity of the DASH tool itself was not examined within the current study.Acknowledgements: We would like to thank the following persons for their assistance with this research: Paul Northcott, and Carola Saunders.

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“…A nationwide survey on domestic violence in Norway found that 10% of the women and 2% of the men had experienced severe IPV (Haaland et al 2005). Recent reviews of IPV have emphasized that there is a paucity of studies on violence escalation and interaction, dynamics of violence, and prediction and coping of IPV incidents as perceived and experienced by the target of violence (Langhinrichsen-Rohling 2005;Schwartz 2005;Arriaga and Capezza 2005;Cano and Vivian 2001;Heckert and Gondolf 2004;Mears and Visher 2005;MessmanMoore and Long 2003;Winstok 2007). The research we are reporting here was initiated to address four main researches of the experiences of 157 women: (1) their responses to violence escalation and violence perpetrated by the partner, (2) the effect of pregnancy and motherhood on IPV, (3) thebefore, during and after the IPV; dynamics of violence; effect of alcohol and drug intoxication; and revictimization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Interactional Perspective of Intimate Partner Violence: An In-depth Semi-structured Interview of a Representative Sample of Help-seeking Women

Vatnar

Bjørkly

2008

J Fam Viol

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This article reports a study of women victimized by intimate partner violence (IPV). We describe three interactional aspects of IPV: (1) responses and conduct before, during, and after IPV episodes, (2) impact of alcohol and drug intoxication, and (3) Predictors of risk for IPV victimization in more than one partnership. A representative sample of 157 help-seeking women, recruited from family counseling offices, the police and shelters, were interviewed about physical, psychological and sexual IPV. The nature and characteristics of the IPV interactions were complex and heterogeneous. There were significant interactional differences between the IPV categories concerning the women_s responses and conduct before, during and after the IPV. The impact of alcohol and drug intoxication was relatively small on the occurrence of IPV. About 75% reported that neither the perpetrator nor the female victim had consumed alcohol or drugs before the index IPV exposure. Only 23% of the women had experienced IPV by previous partners. Women who had been subjected to sexual abuse in their family of origin were at almost 25 times increased risk of IPV victimization in more than one partnership. Childhood exposure to physical IPV between parents increased the risk of IPV victimization in more than one partnership significantly more than if the woman had been subject to childhood physical victimization.

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Battered Women’s Perceptions of Risk Versus Risk Factors and Instruments in Predicting Repeat Reassault

Cited by 142 publications

References 30 publications

Police Attempts to Predict Domestic Murder and Serious Assaults: Is Early Warning Possible Yet?

Police Attempts to Predict Domestic Murder and Serious Assaults: Is Early Warning Possible Yet?

Exploration of the risk factors contained within the UK’s existing domestic abuse risk assessment tool (DASH): do these risk factors have individual predictive validity regarding recidivism?

An Interactional Perspective of Intimate Partner Violence: An In-depth Semi-structured Interview of a Representative Sample of Help-seeking Women

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