Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;18&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;O data

Peavoy, Daniel; Franzke, Christian

doi:10.5194/cp-6-787-2010

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…It is still stated in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (in the section 2.5.2 Mitigation, adaptation and climate change impacts), notably: "… it is not clear that climate surprises have a low probability…" (IPCC 2007). As pieces of evidence accumulated, a growing belief that climate is not equable but behaves as a complex system, with a temporal evolution in which a small, even random, forcing could trigger rapid and irreversible changes (so-called "tipping points" Lenton et al 2007) that could be huge (Alley et al 2003;Peavoy and Franzke 2010). In other words, the climate system can experience abrupt changes (Budyko 1962).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century

Varotsos

Franzke

Efstathiou

et al. 2013

Theor Appl Climatol

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We have recently suggested that the warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) since 1900, did not occur smoothly and slowly, but with two rapid shifts in 1925/1926 and 1987/1988, which are more obvious over the tropics and the northern midlatitudes. Apart from these shifts most of the remaining SST variability is due to the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Here we provide evidence that the time separation between these two SST shifts (around 60 years) is almost equal to the quasi-periodicity of many natural cycles, like that of the PDO, the global and Northern Hemisphere (NH) annual mean temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, the Southwest US Drought data, the length of day, the air surface temperature, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and the change in the location of the centre of mass of the solar system. In addition, we show that there exists a strong seasonal link between SST and ENSO over the tropics and the NH midlatitudes, which becomes stronger in autumn of the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, we found that before and after each SST shift the intrinsic properties of the SST time series obey stochastic dynamics, which is unaffected by the modulation of these two shifts. In particular, the SST fluctuations for the time period between the two SST shifts exhibit 1/f-type long range correlations, which are frequently encountered in a large variety of natural systems. Our results have potential implications for future climate shifts and crossing tipping points due to an interaction of intrinsic climate cycles and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century

Varotsos

Franzke

Efstathiou

et al. 2013

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…The techniques have also been applied to regional and local scales such as North Pacific sea-surface temperature projections [31], regional pre-cipitation [32] and temperature [33,34] projections, tropical cyclone frequency and track locations [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46], Arctic ice occurrence [47], and water management, streamflow and flooding [48][49][50][51][52]. Bayesian estimation has also been used in paleoclimate studies using isotope data [53]. This is not an exhaustive list of the applications of Bayesian techniques to the atmospheric sciences, but rather is intended to indicate the recent frequency of application to problems in weather and climate.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian Learning of Climate Sensitivity I: Synthetic Observations

Ring¹,

Schlesinger²

2012

ACS

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The instrumental temperature records are affected by both external climate forcings—in particular, the increase of long-lived greenhouse gas emissions—and natural, internal variability. Estimates of the value of equilibrium climate sensitivity—the change in global-mean equilibrium near-surface temperature due to a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 concentration—and other climate parameters using these observational records are affected by the presence of the internal variability. A different realization of the natural variability will result in different estimates of the values of these climate parameters. In this study we apply Bayesian estimation to simulated temperature and ocean heat-uptake records generated by our Climate Research Group’s Simple Climate Model for known values of equilibrium climate sensitivity, T2x direct sulfate aerosol forcing in reference year 2000, FASA, and oceanic heat diffusivity, ΔT2x. We choose the simulated records for one choice of values of the climate parameters to serve as the synthetic observations. To each of the simulated temperature records we add a number of draws of the quasi-periodic oscillations and stochastic noise, determined from the observed temperature record. For cases considering only values of ΔT2x and/or κ, the Bayesian estimation converges to the value(s) of ΔT2x and/or κ used to generate the synthetic observations. However, for cases studying FASA, the Bayesian analysis does not converge to the “true” value used to generate the synthetic observations. We show that this is a problem of low signal-to-noise ratio: by substituting an artificial, continuously increasing sulfate record, we greatly improve the value obtained through Bayesian estimation. Our results indicate Bayesian learning techniques will be useful tools in constraining the values of ΔT2x and κ but not FASA In our Group’s future work we will extend the methods used here to the observed, instrumental records of global-mean temperature increase and ocean heat uptake

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“…The claimed roughly periodic, non-sinusoidal character of DO events, with a basic period of about T 1450-1500 yr, has been questioned on the basis of the fact that a null random hypothesis for these events cannot be fully rejected (Ditlevsen et al, 2007;Schulz, 2002;Peavoy and Franzke, 2010). This is obviously due to the fact that the criteria used for a definition of DO events cannot be firmly established.…”

Section: Published By Copernicus Publications On Behalf Of the Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Natural periodicities and Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere connection of fast temperature changes during the last glacial period: EPICA and NGRIP revisited

et al. 2014

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Abstract. We investigate both the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dronning Maud Land (EDML) andNorth Greenland Ice-Core Project (NGRIP) data sets to study both the time evolution of the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events and the dynamics at longer timescales during the last glacial period. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to extract the proper modes of both the data sets. It is shown that the time behavior at the typical timescales of Dansgaard-Oeschger events is captured through signal reconstructions obtained by summing five EMD modes for NGRIP and four EMD modes for EDML. The reconstructions obtained by summing the successive modes can be used to describe the climate evolution at longer timescales, characterized by intervals in which Dansgaard-Oeschger events happen and intervals when these are not observed. Using EMD signal reconstructions and a simple model based on the one-dimensional Langevin equation, it is argued that the occurrence of a Dansgaard-Oeschger event can be described as an excitation of the climate system within the same state, while the longer timescale behavior appears to be due to transitions between different climate states. Finally, on the basis of a cross-correlation analysis performed on EMD reconstructions, evidence that the Antarctic climate changes lead those of Greenland by a lag of ≈ 3.05 kyr is presented.

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Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ<sup>18</sup>O data

Abstract: Abstract. We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ 18

Cited by 20 publications

References 25 publications

Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century

Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century

Bayesian Learning of Climate Sensitivity I: Synthetic Observations

Natural periodicities and Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere connection of fast temperature changes during the last glacial period: EPICA and NGRIP revisited

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