Bayesian assessment of favorability for oil and gas prospects over the Recôncavo basin, Brazil

Rostirolla, Sidnei Pires; Mattana, Antonio Carlos; Bartoszeck, Marcelo Kulevicz

doi:10.1306/10070201068

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Seguindo as premissas presentes em Rostirolla et al (1997), são consideradas "necessárias" aquelas variáveis que sempre existem nos depósitos conhecidos, enquanto as variáveis "suficientes" podem ou não existir, mas sua ocorrência representa um forte indício de mineralização. A condição de suficiência de uma variável E é satisfeita quando a probabilidade de existência do depósito (hipótese H) é maximizada com a presença da variável (P(H|E) = máximo).…”

Section: Métodosunclassified

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Estudo Da Relação Entre Lineamentos Estruturais E a Exploração De Água Subterrânea Por Meio Da Análise De Favorabilidade

Vidal¹,

Rostirolla²,

Kiang³

et al. 2006

R. Águas Subter.

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RESUMO A Análise de Favorabilidade foi aplicada como um método para avaliar a correlação entre as feições estruturais e o comportamento de fluxo do aqüífero. A análise foi realizada em área aflorante do Grupo de Tubarão, entre as cidades de Campinas e Sorocaba (Estado de São Paulo). Essa área foi escolhida devido à sua complexidade geológica e à baixa previsão do comportamento de fluxo antes da perfuração. Para se aplicar este método, foram consideradas como produtivas as regiões com valores de elevada capacidade específica. Ao todo foram obtidas seis variáveis por meio da análise de imagens de satélite Landsat 7-ETM, Modelos Digitais do Terreno (SRTM), e da utilização de mapas geológicos da área. Os resultados demonstram que a região entre as cidades de Elias Fausto e Monte Mor apresenta a melhor correlação com o lineamento estrutural, o que demonstra ser este um fator importante para o alto potencial exploratório do aqüífero nesta área. Palavras-chave: análise de favorabilidade, hidrogeologia, Grupo Tubarão.

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Section: Métodosunclassified

“…Várias áreas da exploração mineral aplicam métodos estatísticos que tem por objetivo a delimitação da ocorrência mineral, com base na associação de algumas variáveis. Em muitos casos, a estatística bayesiana é utilizada por meio da análise de favorabilidade (OTT et al 2006, ROSTIROLLA et al 2003, HARBAUGH et al 1995.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Estudo Da Relação Entre Lineamentos Estruturais E a Exploração De Água Subterrânea Por Meio Da Análise De Favorabilidade

Vidal¹,

Rostirolla²,

Kiang³

et al. 2006

R. Águas Subter.

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“…These include reservoir performance prediction, binary comparison, parametric optimization, 10 rule extraction algorithms in combination with clustering techniques, 11 heterogeneity matrices, 12 mobile oil configuration, 13 risk management frameworks 14 and Bayesian weighting methodologies. 15 All of these different geologic screening techniques and methodologies have two things in common;…”

Section: Geologic Analysis Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Candidate Acquisition of Downhole Water Sink Potential (CadWasp) -Initial Development of an Expert System for Identifying Candidates for Enhanced Recovery Technologies

Kimbrell¹,

Wojtanowicz²,

Jarred³

2006

Canadian International Petroleum Conference

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This paper overviews research efforts, to date, toward an expert system and well candidate selection program model, named Candidate Acquisition of Downhole Water Sink Potential or CadWasp. The final program will identify bypassed oil reserves that are accessible through re-entering inactive and orphaned wells with Downhole Water Sink (DWS) installations and prioritize these reserves according to their success potential. DWS uses two completions, one for the water column and one for the oil column to control water coning. The use of DWS technology is the primary target for this system, but the system is built to enable other types of well stimulations/enhancements to be able to target candidates as well.CadWasp has been designed to identify "most likely to succeed" candidates, not all candidates by searching a massive database from large operational area containing incomplete data. It is presently coupled with the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources Strategic Online Natural Resources Information System (SONRIS) that provided sufficient information for the initial prioritization of candidates by regions, parishes, fields, reservoirs and wells.CadWasp is written in Java in order to allow its running on a wide number of platforms. To avoid problems with installing and configuring a database management system (DBMS) such as Microsoft Access or mySQL, data is stored locally on the user's hard disk in specially formatted files for use in CadWasp.

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“…Geographical information systems (GIS)-based spatial models have become increasingly popular to quantify and examine geological data. They were first used to assess hard-rock minerals (Bonham-Carter et al, 1988;Watson et al, 1989;Agterberg et al, 1993;Bonham-Carter, 1994) and more recently they have been applied to hydrocarbons (Chen et al, 2000(Chen et al, & 2001Chen et al, 2002;Osadetz et al, 2003;Rostirolla et al, 2003;Sinding-Larsen & Brandsegg, 2005).…”

Section: Spatial Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GIS-based models have been applied in a number of different ways to quantify undiscovered oil and gas. Some are deterministic and model hydrocarbon generation and accumulation based on the theoretical specification of geologic processes (Wood et al, 1998) and others are predictive and are based on Fourier algorithms (Chen et al, 2002), favourability mapping (Rostirolla et al, 2003), or characteristic analysis methods (Gao et al, 2000;Chen et al, 2000a;Sinding-Larsen & Brandsegg, 2005).…”

Section: Spatial Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dual Component Estimation; a probabilistic approach to estimate undiscovered oil and gas in an underexplored basin, Taranaki Basin, New Zealand

Jones¹

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<p>New Zealand has relied on the supply of oil and gas from the Maui Field in the Taranaki Basin for 40 years. As this field nears depletion, there is considerable governmental encouragement for increased investment in exploration to ensure continued oil and gas production for domestic use and the export market. The Taranaki Basin covers a 100,000 km² area and has a 10 km-thick Cretaceous to Holocene sediment fill, which hosts only 200 exploration wells with 33 oil and gas discoveries ≥ 1 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe). Discoveries have been made throughout Paleocene to Holocene sequences in multiple reservoirs within onshore and offshore parts of the basin. A review of the hydrocarbon potential of the Taranaki Basin suggests that more than one working petroleum system operates in the basin, based on the distribution of oil and gas-condensate. As part of this study the most productive and prospective reservoir intervals have been studied to ascertain the working petroleum systems. The reservoir intervals are grouped into four plays and are referred to as the Cretaceous, Paleocene, Eocene and Miocene plays. The Dual Component Estimation (DCE) is a novel way of combining a modified, existing, size distribution-based discovery-sequence sampling method with a Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based spatial method to estimate the amount and likely location of undiscovered oil and gas in an underexplored basin. In particular, the DCE uses an inverse sampling method to ensure the total number of all accumulations in the basin is not constrained by the size distributions of discoveries, which typically represent a very small proportion of accumulations in an underexplored basin. Furthermore, it is a probabilistic approach that captures ranges in uncertainties that result from using regional scale data and assumptions used to simplify the process of generating and trapping hydrocarbons. Given the underexplored character of the Taranaki Basin, this study has included potential discoveries to define the size distribution of the original population of all accumulations in a basin, which is used to derive the undiscovered volume. Potential discoveries are based on basin modelling and mapped structural traps. This approach increases the dataset of accumulations (discovered and modelled) from 33 to 338 and generates an original parent population that includes petroleum systems information from explored and unexplored areas of the basin. DCE modelling results suggest that the basin has an undiscovered oil and gas resource potential of ~1500 oil and gas accumulations totalling 8210–10800 mmboe. The mean discovery size is 328.7 mmboe; however the next discovery could be as large as 550–900 mmboe (with a 10% probability). More likely, the next discovery is estimated to be at least 50 mmboe (with a 90% probability) which is a commercially significant size in the Taranaki Basin. New discoveries in the Palaeocene play have been modelled in the Manaia anticline area, Western Platform and onshore eastern margin of the basin. It is most likely that a discovery in this play will be at least 40 mmboe, with a 90% probability; however it may be closer to 470 mmboe, with a 10% probability. The Eocene play is the most prospective and future discoveries will most likely be located along the eastern margin of the basin, nearshore and onshore of the western peninsula, and offshore, east of the Maui Field. There is a 10% probability that a new discovery in this play may be as big as 200–500 mmboe. More likely, with a 90% probability, a new discovery may be at least 35 mmboe. Discoveries in the Miocene play are most likely in the onshore peninsular area and in the offshore Northern Graben. There is a 90% probability that the next discovery may be at least 55 mmboe and a 10% probability that it may be much larger (310–800 mmboe). A discovery is yet to be made in the Cretaceous play. This study indicates that a new discovery in this play is most likely to be at least 50 mmboe (with a 90% probability) but may be greater and be at least 500 mmboe (with 10% probability). The strength of the DCE is in the use of additional geological data to include unexplored areas of the underexplored Taranaki Basin in the estimation. This estimation should also be applicable to other geologically similar, underexplored, sedimentary basins of New Zealand.</p>

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Bayesian assessment of favorability for oil and gas prospects over the Recôncavo basin, Brazil

Cited by 13 publications

References 8 publications

Estudo Da Relação Entre Lineamentos Estruturais E a Exploração De Água Subterrânea Por Meio Da Análise De Favorabilidade

Estudo Da Relação Entre Lineamentos Estruturais E a Exploração De Água Subterrânea Por Meio Da Análise De Favorabilidade

Candidate Acquisition of Downhole Water Sink Potential (CadWasp) -Initial Development of an Expert System for Identifying Candidates for Enhanced Recovery Technologies

Dual Component Estimation; a probabilistic approach to estimate undiscovered oil and gas in an underexplored basin, Taranaki Basin, New Zealand

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