Bayesian Asymmetric Logit Model for Detecting Risk Factors in Motor Ratemaking

Sánchez, José María Pérez; Hernández, Miguel Ángel Negrín; García-García, C.; Gómez–Déniz, Emilio

doi:10.1017/asb.2013.32

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 42 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Pérez‐Sánchez et al. () promote the asymmetric logistic model to better fit the policy records in which there are many more no‐claim policies than claimed policies. Guerreiro et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Research Developments Affecting Nonlife Insurance—The CAS Risk Premium Project 2014 Update

Eling

Jia

2017

Risk Manage Insurance Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article discusses the main results of the Casualty Actuarial Society Risk Premium Project 2014 update. It reviews the recent research developments in the process of nonlife risk assessment. Of special note, systemic risk continuously attracts a great deal of attention. In the past year, reinsurance studies have increased significantly, driven by progress in optimal reinsurance design and reinsurance asymmetric information. Both topics show the academic reflection of financial crisis in the field of risk and insurance. The evaluation of reserves and the methods mitigating asymmetric information have also received a great deal of attention.

show abstract

“…Pérez‐Sánchez et al. () promote the asymmetric logistic model to better fit the policy records in which there are many more no‐claim policies than claimed policies. Guerreiro et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Research Developments Affecting Nonlife Insurance—The CAS Risk Premium Project 2014 Update

Eling

Jia

2017

Risk Manage Insurance Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Ref. [14] examined the risk variables underlying automobile insurance claims having into account the asymmetry of the database. Ref.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetric versus Symmetric Binary Regresion: A New Proposal with Applications

2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The classical logit and probit models allow to explain a dichotomous dependent variable as a function of factors or covariates which can influence the response variable. This paper introduces a new skew-logit link for item response theory by considering the arctan transformation over the scobit logit model, yielding a very flexible link function from a new class of generalized distribution. This approach assumes an asymmetric model, which reduces to the standard logit model for a special case of the parameters that control the distribution’s symmetry. The model proposed is simple and allows us to estimate the parameters without using Bayesian methods, which requires implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Furthermore, no special function appears in the formulation of the model. We compared the proposed model with the classical logit specification using three datasets. The first one deals with the well-known data collection widely studied in the statistical literature, concerning with mortality of adult beetle after exposure to gaseous carbon disulphide, the second one considers an automobile insurance portfolio. Finally, the third dataset examines touristic data related to tourist expenditure. For these examples, the results illustrate that the new model changes the significance level of some explanatory variables and the marginal effects. For the latter example, we have also modified the definition of the intercept in the linear predictor to prevent confounding.

show abstract

“…Sáez-Castillo et al (2010) applied the asymmetric logit model to analyze infection rates in a General and Digestive Surgery hospital department. Pérez-Sánchez et al (2014) studied the risk variables underlying automobile insurance claims taking into account the asymmetry of the database. Alkhalaf and Zumbo (2017) studied logistic regression when some of the predictors have skewed cell probabilities and finally Mwenda et al (2021) uses the logistic model proposed by Prentice (1976) to study correlated infant morbidity data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Skewed Binary Regression to Study Rental Cars by Tourists in the Canary Islands

Cárdenes

Sánchez

Gómez–Déniz

et al. 2021

JRFM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tourism is one of the economic sectors that contributes the most to the gross domestic product in many countries, moving, in turn, other economic sectors such as transport. In particular, the automotive industry constitutes an economic subsector that moves vast amounts of money. Concerning tourism and transport sectors, car rental is a crucial element contributing considerably to gross domestic product and job creation. Due to the effects that vehicle rental seems to have on various economic sectors, it seems interesting to know why a tourist chooses to rent a car during their vacation in a specific destination. This work aims to study those factors that can be considered relevant and affect the probability of renting a vehicle. The document addressed the following research topics: (a) identifying significant variables; and (b) can information on these factors help car rental firms? Empirically, it is shown that more tourists do not rent a car and this fact has to be considered. Thus, the classical logistic and Bayesian regression models do not seem adequate in this case, so that the authors will consider an asymmetric logistic regression model. This work analyzes 28,235 tourists who visited the Canary Islands during 2017. From a Bayesian point of view, asymmetric logistics regression is chosen as the best model because it detects relevant development factors not seen by standard logistic regressions. In light of the document’s findings, various practice recommendations improve decision-making in this field. The asymmetric logit link is a helpful device that can help rental companies make decisions about their clients.

show abstract

Bayesian Asymmetric Logit Model for Detecting Risk Factors in Motor Ratemaking

Cited by 8 publications

References 42 publications

Recent Research Developments Affecting Nonlife Insurance—The CAS Risk Premium Project 2014 Update

Recent Research Developments Affecting Nonlife Insurance—The CAS Risk Premium Project 2014 Update

Asymmetric versus Symmetric Binary Regresion: A New Proposal with Applications

Skewed Binary Regression to Study Rental Cars by Tourists in the Canary Islands

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About