Bayesian estimation of the time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran: A registry-based study from 2018 to 2022 using new smear-positive cases

Rastegar, Maryam; Nazar, Eisa; Nasehi, Mahshid; Sharafi, Saeed; Fakoor, Vahid; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2024.05.003

Infectious Disease Modelling

2024

DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.05.003

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Bayesian estimation of the time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran: A registry-based study from 2018 to 2022 using new smear-positive cases

Maryam Rastegar,

Eisa Nazar,

Mahshid Nasehi

et al.

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2024

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Effective Reproduction Number of Smear-Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran: A Registry-Based Study (2011-2021)

Rastegar,

Fakoor,

Nazar

et al. 2024

J Res Health Sci

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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health issue in Iran, especially smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (SPPTB), due to its high transmission rate. Examining the effective reproduction number(Rt ) of SPPTB and patient characteristics is crucial for crafting targeted TB control measures. This study aimed to assess the Rt of SPPTB in Iran from 2011 to 2021 and profile SPPTB patient demographics, initial smear bacilli density, diagnosis delays, and spatial distribution. Study Design: This is a historical cohort study. Methods: A time-dependent method was used to estimate Rt , and monthly data from the national TB registry were scrutinized from 2011 to 2021. Results: A decline was observed in SPPTB incidence rates of 50909 SPPTB cases in Iran from 2011 to 2021. Approximately 29.1% of the cases were diagnosed within a month, while 44.5% experienced a one to three-month delay in diagnosis. The analysis revealed substantial heterogeneity in TB transmission dynamics across various provinces of Iran. Provinces such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi exhibited the highest effective reproduction numbers. Additionally, there was a decreasing trend in the effective reproduction numbers across all provinces from 2011 to 2020. Conclusion: Effective reproduction numbers declined in most provinces from 2011 to 2020 but increased moderately after the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions. Although SPPTB incidence rates are declining nationally, elevated incidence rates and effective reproduction numbers in regions such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi signify the need for persistent TB management efforts in Iran.

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Effective Reproduction Number of Smear-Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran: A Registry-Based Study (2011-2021)

Rastegar,

Fakoor,

Nazar

et al. 2024

J Res Health Sci

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

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Bayesian estimation of the time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran: A registry-based study from 2018 to 2022 using new smear-positive cases

Cited by 1 publication

References 44 publications

Effective Reproduction Number of Smear-Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran: A Registry-Based Study (2011-2021)

Effective Reproduction Number of Smear-Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran: A Registry-Based Study (2011-2021)

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