Bayesian Estimation of Total Fertility from a Population's Age-Sex Distribution

Abstract

We investigate a modern statistical approach to a classic deterministic demographic estimation technique. When vital event registration is missing or inadequate, it is possible to approximate a population's total fertility (T F R) from information about its distribution by age and sex. For example, if under-five child mortality is low then TFR is often close to seven times the child/woman ratio (CW R), the number of 0-4 year olds per 15-49 year old woman. We analyze the formal relationship between CW R and T F R to identify sources of uncertainty in indirect estimates.We construct a Bayesian model for the statistical distribution of T F R conditional on the population's age-sex structure, in which unknown demographic quantities in the