Bayesian finite-population inference with spatially correlated measurements

Abstract

Community-based public health interventions often rely on representative, spatially referenced outcome data to draw conclusions about a finite population. To estimate finite-population parameters, we are posed with two challenges: to correctly account for spatial association among the sampled and nonsampled participants and to correctly model missingness in key covariates, which may be also spatially associated. To accomplish this, we take inspiration from the preferential sampling literature and develop a general Bayesian framework that can specifically account for preferential non-response. This framework is first applied to three missing data scenarios in a simulation study. It is then used to account for missing data patterns seen in reported annual household income in a corner-store intervention project. Through this, we are able to construct finite-population estimates of the percent of income spent on fruits and vegetables. Such a framework provides a flexible way to account for spatial association and complex missing data structures in finite populations.