Bayesian inference-based environmental decision support systems for oil spill response strategy selection

Davies, Andrew J.; Hope, Max

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.05.041

Cited by 40 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…This can be coped with the fact that most countries have just started to apply MSP. The application of DS in MSP has been found in papers dealing with the protection of environment, ecology, biodiversity, coastal, and seabed habitat features [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26], marine traffic [27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36], anchorage planning strategy [37], and site identification (selection) [38][39][40]. It can be concluded that most of the papers, in which DSS is used in the planning of various activities in MSP, are based on ecological issues, and on the issue of regulating traffic within maritime industrial ports, but not with the development of spatial plans, and especially not with plans related to the construction of anchorages as a civil engineering problem.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integral Approach to Sustainable Decision-Making within Maritime Spatial Planning—A DSC for the Planning of Anchorages on the Island of Šolta, Croatia

Jajac¹,

Kilić²,

Rogulj³

2018

Sustainability

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The planning of nautical tourism development and especially, the planning of its supporting infrastructure development, is important topic of the maritime spatial planning. The focus of research is the integration of multicriteria analysis and stakeholders within concept modeling that will provide support to the spatial planning specialists in the design of plans related to the development of anchorage capacities for small vessels. It examines economic, environmental, ecological, social, and civil engineering concerns related to the use of coastal water. It is a complex and ill-defined civil engineering problem because of multiple stakeholders with diverse interests, numerous conflicting goals and criteria, huge quantities of information and data, limited resources, etc. The research is concentrated on an integral approach to sustainable decision-making within maritime spatial planning by the modeling decision support concept to the processes of identification, validation, comparison, and the selection of locations for anchorage construction, based on multicriteria methods, goal analysis, and the logic of the decision support system. The concept is tested on the island of Šolta, Croatia, and has been proven as being an applicable, consistent, efficient, and effective methodology for the planning of the anchorage locations.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integral Approach to Sustainable Decision-Making within Maritime Spatial Planning—A DSC for the Planning of Anchorages on the Island of Šolta, Croatia

Jajac¹,

Kilić²,

Rogulj³

2018

Sustainability

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“…Another problem is to integrate the influencing factors to obtain the attribute values. In this process, the Fuzzy logic Mokhtari et al, 2012), Bayesian network (Davies & Hope 2015), and Evidential reasoning are widely used methods (Yang, 2001;Yang & Xu 2002). …”

Section: Decision Support For Maritime Accidentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergency Management of Maritime Accidents in the Yangtze River: Problems, Practice and Prospects

Yan

Zhang

et al. 2017

TransNav

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Maritime accidents have received considerable attentions due to the enormous property damage, casualties and serious environmental pollution. This paper first makes statistical analysis of the different types of maritime accidents in the period of 2012 to 2014 in the Yangtze River. Second, the problems of emergency management of maritime accidents are also proposed from the analysis of the major accident "Eastern Star".. Afterwards, four practice cases, including decision support for maritime accidents, emergency resource allocation, emergency simulation system and effectiveness of emergency management, are introduced to present the insights gained from these practices. Last, in order to address these problems, this paper proposes that an artificial societies, Computational experiments, and Parallel execution (ACP) approach should be introduced to establish an improved management system for maritime accidents in the future, and an ACP based maritime accident emergency management framework is proposed.

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“…This is made more difficult by the complexity of the processes involved in the accidental release of the oil (Rogowska and Namieśnik 2010;Lee et al 2015;Afenyo et al 2016). Decisions about which mitigative measures to employ becomes even more challenging (Davidson et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An explorative object-oriented Bayesian network model for oil spill response in the Arctic Ocean

Afenyo

Khan

Veitch

et al. 2019

Saf. Extreme Environ.

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This paper proposes an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network model to study oil spill mitigative measures using cost-effectiveness as a decision-making factor. The cost-effectiveness is defined as the ratio of dollar spent to the efficiency of oil removal in the spill area. The proposed model considers the complexity, lack of data, and uncertainties in an oil spill and response modelling scenario for Arctic shipping accident occurrence. The crude oil release, slick formation, weathering and transport, ecological impact, and response scenarios are modelled using Bayesian Network. Application of the model is demonstrated using a hypothetical scenario of an oil spill involving a ship in the Arctic region. The results show that a combination of in-situ burning, mechanical and manual recovery, and use of dispersants would cost the highest, while the use of in-situ burning, and dispersants gives the cheapest option. The study provides a deeper understanding of oil spill dynamics and effectiveness of the response techniques. The proposed model could serve as a useful tool for oil spill response decision-making.

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Bayesian inference-based environmental decision support systems for oil spill response strategy selection

Cited by 40 publications

References 37 publications

An Integral Approach to Sustainable Decision-Making within Maritime Spatial Planning—A DSC for the Planning of Anchorages on the Island of Šolta, Croatia

An Integral Approach to Sustainable Decision-Making within Maritime Spatial Planning—A DSC for the Planning of Anchorages on the Island of Šolta, Croatia

Emergency Management of Maritime Accidents in the Yangtze River: Problems, Practice and Prospects

An explorative object-oriented Bayesian network model for oil spill response in the Arctic Ocean

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