Bayesian inference for oil spill related Net Environmental Benefit Analysis

Abstract

This paper investigates the applicability of Bayesian inference to oil spill related situation assessment in order to facilitate the Net Environmental Benefit Analysis (NEBA) based decisions in evaluating the threat or probable overall environmental impact of the spill. Bayesian networks are believed to be useful in integrating the NEBA related information imported from 1) oil spill scene surveillance, 2) simulation results on an oil spill incident with human response, and 3) ecological sensitivity maps. This paper exemplifies the use of Bayesian Belief Networks in answering the questions: can the oil spill be combated at sea, and if it cannot then is the oil threatening a sensitive environment?

Next-Generation Smart Response Web (NG-SRW): An Operational Spatial Decision Support System for Maritime Oil Spill Emergency Response in the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)

“…In the Baltic Sea context, the Bayesian inference to oil spill-related situation assessment is used in order to facilitate the NEBA-based decisions in selecting the best available oil spill response alternative and in evaluating the threat or probable overall environmental impact of the spill [43,44].…”

Bayesian inference in oil spill response management

“…Collected and calculated accidental oil spill related actual information (current and wind force, and mobilization time) is used to amend the information variables of the BBN with the aim to bring a hypothesis variable (efficiency of booms and skimmers) to a state that is consistent with the new information [19]. According to the simulated scenario, the estimated probability of the efficient use of booms and skimmers is very low because of rough weather (Figure 3).…”

“…Despite few recent publications [19,23], the studies into the Bayesian inference in oil spill response management are still in their infancy. In ecological risk assessment and in the consensual decisions support tools the Bayesian networks need to be integrated with other simulation software, thereby making it possible for the BBNs to interact with other components of simulation including access to relevant data as input and to produce probability distributions in a manner that can be accessed by other components.…”

Environmental impact assessment based on a potential oil spill scenario: Eastern Black Sea coastal zone, Turkey

“…In this case the advice on sensitive ecological resources likely to be impacted by the oil washing ashore is of critical importance in order to support decisions whether or not a response is necessary or what kind and extent of response is appropriate [11].…”

“…Net Environmental Benefit Analysis (NEBA) is defined as a method to determine the most appropriate response option(s) in order to minimize the overall environmental impact of an oil spill [8,9] and this method is often used for oil spill related risk assessment [10,11]. Immediately after notification of a pollution incident at sea, the NEBA is to be performed, and a quick decision is to be taken on the most appropriate response option(s).…”