Bayesian longitudinal models for exploring European sardine fishing in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract

In the Mediterranean Sea, catches are dominated by small pelagic fish, representing nearly the 49% of the total harvest. Among them, the European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) is one of the most commercially important species showing high over-exploitation rates in recent last years. In this study we analysed the European sardine landings in the Mediterranean Sea from 1970 to 2014. We made use of Bayesian longitudinal linear mixed models in order to assess differences in the temporal evolution of fishing between and within countries. Furthermore, we modelled the subsequent joint evolution of artisanal and industrial fisheries. Overall results confirmed that Mediterranean fishery time series were highly diverse along their dynamics and this heterogeneity was persistent throughout the time. In addition, results highlighted a positive relationship between the two types of fishing.