Bayesian multiproxy temperature reconstruction with black spruce ring widths and stable isotopes from the northern Quebec taiga

Gennaretti, Fabio; Huard, David; Naulier, Maud; Savard, Martine M.; Bégin, Christian; Arseneault, Dominique; Guiot, Joël

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3565-5

Cited by 37 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Several studies provided regional to hemispheric syntheses of the Earth's climate history over the past 2,000 years (e.g., Gennaretti et al, 2017;Labuhn et al, 2016;Neukom et al, 2014). Most of them have been focused on the Northern Hemisphere, which has a dense network of paleoclimatic records (Ahmed et al, 2013;Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013;Wilson et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past Summer Temperatures Inferred From Dendrochronological Records of Fitzroya cupressoides on the Eastern Slope of the Northern Patagonian Andes

et al. 2018

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Estimating summer temperature fluctuations over long timescales in southern South America is essential for better understanding the past climate variations in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we developed robust 212 year long basal area increment (BAI) and δ13C chronologies from living temperature‐sensitive Fitzroya cupressoides on the eastern slope of the northern Patagonian Andes (41°S). After removing the increasing trend from the growth records likely due to the CO2 fertilization effect, we tested the potential to reconstruct past summer temperature variations using BAI and δ13C as predictors. The reconstruction based on δ13C records has the strongest predictive skills and explains as much as 62% of the total variance in instrumental summer temperature (n = 81, p < 0.001). The temperature signal recorded in tree‐ring growth is not substantially different to that present in δ13C and consequently does not provide additional information to improve the regression models. Our δ13C‐based reconstruction shows cold summer temperatures in the second part of the 19th century and in the mid‐20th century followed by a warmer period. Notably, the 20th and the early 21st centuries were warmer (+0.6°C) than the 19th century. Reconstructed summer temperature variations are modulated by low‐latitude (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and high‐latitude (Southern Annular Mode) climate forcings. Our reconstruction based on δ13C agrees well with previous ring width based temperature reconstructions in the region and comparatively enhances the low‐frequency variations in the records. The present study provides the first reconstruction of summer temperature in South America south of 40°S for the period 1800–2011 entirely based on isotopic records.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past Summer Temperatures Inferred From Dendrochronological Records of Fitzroya cupressoides on the Eastern Slope of the Northern Patagonian Andes

et al. 2018

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“…The selected sites are of special interest for palaeoclimatology given that their δ 18 O TR chronologies carry strong temperature signals. A summer temperature reconstruction was already developed at the North American site (Gennaretti et al, 2017b;Naulier et al, 2015) and a calibration study conducted at the South American one highlighted the strong potential of δ 18 O TR values to reflect variations in summer-autumn temperatures over a large region south of 38 • S (Lavergne et al, 2016). However, up to now, the climate-δ 18 O TR relationships were analysed using a black box approach based on linear models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling tree ring cellulose <i>δ</i><sup>18</sup>O variations in two temperature-sensitive tree species from North and South America

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Oxygen isotopes in tree rings (δ 18 O TR ) are widely used to reconstruct past climates. However, the complexity of climatic and biological processes controlling isotopic fractionation is not yet fully understood. Here, we use the MAIDENiso model to decipher the variability in δ 18 O TR of two temperature-sensitive species of relevant palaeoclimatological interest (Picea mariana and Nothofagus pumilio) and growing at cold high latitudes in North and South America. In this first modelling study on δ 18 O TR values in both northeastern Canada (53.86 • N) and western Argentina (41.10 • S), we specifically aim at (1) evaluating the predictive skill of MAIDENiso to simulate δ 18 O TR values, (2) identifying the physical processes controlling δ 18 O TR by mechanistic modelling and (3) defining the origin of the temperature signal recorded in the two species. Although the linear regression models used here to predict daily δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O P ) may need to be improved in the future, the resulting daily δ 18 O P values adequately reproduce observed (from weather stations) and simulated (by global circulation model) δ 18 O P series. The δ 18 O TR values of the two species are correctly simulated using the δ 18 O P estimation as MAIDENiso input, although some offset in mean δ 18 O TR levels is observed for the South American site. For both species, the variability in δ 18 O TR series is primarily linked to the effect of temperature on isotopic enrichment of the leaf water. We show that MAIDENiso is a powerful tool for investigating isotopic fractionation processes but that the lack of a denser isotope-enabled monitoring network recording oxygen fractionation in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere compartments limits our capacity to decipher the processes at play. This study proves that the eco-physiological modelling of δ 18 O TR values is necessary to interpret the recorded climate signal more reliably.

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“…This approach allows reducing the impact of individual proxy errors, accounting for uncertainties, and running sensitivity tests for assessing the different proxy responses to a specific forcing Emile-Geay and Tingley, 2015). Combining tree-ring  18 O, width and density series of spruce trees from northern Quebec, a Bayesian approach produced an improved millennial temperature reconstruction compared to the ones obtained from individual proxies (Gennaretti et al, 2017).…”

Section: Linking Isotopic Time Series To Climatic Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Overview on Isotopic Divergences – Causes for instability of Tree-Ring Isotopes and Climate Correlations

Savard¹,

Daux²

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Climatic reconstructions based on tree-ring isotopic series convey substantial information about past conditions prevailing in forested regions of the globe. However, in some cases, the relations between isotopic and climatic records appear unstable over time, generating the ‘isotopic divergences’. Former reviews have thoroughly discussed the divergence concept for tree-ring physical properties, but not for isotopes. Here we want to take stock of the isotopic divergence problem, express concerns and stimulate collaborative work for improving paleoclimatic reconstructions. There are five main causes for divergent parts in isotopic and climatic series. (1) Artefacts due to sampling and data treatment, relevant for dealing with long-series using sub-fossil stems. (2) Stand dynamics, including juvenile effects mostly occurring in the early part of tree-ring series. (3) Rise in atmospheric pCO2, which can directly influence the foliar behaviour. (4) Change of climate, which may modify the isotope-climate causal links. Finally (5), atmospheric pollution, which may alter leaf and root functions. Future paleoclimate research would benefit from interdisciplinary efforts designed to develop further process-based models integrating multi-proxy inputs, so to help identify causes of isotopic divergences and circumvent some of them in inverse applications.

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Bayesian multiproxy temperature reconstruction with black spruce ring widths and stable isotopes from the northern Quebec taiga

Cited by 37 publications

References 63 publications

Past Summer Temperatures Inferred From Dendrochronological Records of Fitzroya cupressoides on the Eastern Slope of the Northern Patagonian Andes

Past Summer Temperatures Inferred From Dendrochronological Records of Fitzroya cupressoides on the Eastern Slope of the Northern Patagonian Andes

Modelling tree ring cellulose <i>δ</i><sup>18</sup>O variations in two temperature-sensitive tree species from North and South America

An Overview on Isotopic Divergences – Causes for instability of Tree-Ring Isotopes and Climate Correlations

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Bayesian multiproxy temperature reconstruction with black spruce ring widths and stable isotopes from the northern Quebec taiga

Cited by 37 publications

References 63 publications

Past Summer Temperatures Inferred From Dendrochronological Records of Fitzroya cupressoides on the Eastern Slope of the Northern Patagonian Andes

Past Summer Temperatures Inferred From Dendrochronological Records of Fitzroya cupressoides on the Eastern Slope of the Northern Patagonian Andes

Modelling tree ring cellulose &lt;i&gt;δ&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O variations in two temperature-sensitive tree species from North and South America

An Overview on Isotopic Divergences – Causes for instability of Tree-Ring Isotopes and Climate Correlations

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Modelling tree ring cellulose <i>δ</i><sup>18</sup>O variations in two temperature-sensitive tree species from North and South America