Bayesian optimisation of restriction zones for bluetongue control

Abstract

We investigate the restriction of animal movements as a method to control the spread of bluetongue, an infectious disease of livestock that is becoming increasingly prevalent due to the onset of climate change. We derive control policies for the UK that minimise the number of infected farms during an outbreak using Bayesian optimisation and a simulation-based model of BT. Two cases are presented: first, where the region of introduction is randomly selected from England and Wales to find a generalised strategy. This “national” model is shown to be just as effective at subduing the spread of bluetongue as the current strategy of the UK government. Our proposed controls are simpler to implement, affect fewer farms in the process and, in so doing, minimise the potential economic implications. Second, we consider policies that are tailored to the specific region in which the first infection was detected. Seven different regions in the UK were explored and improvements in efficiency from the use of specialised policies presented. As a consequence of the increasing temperatures associated with climate change, efficient control measures for vector-borne diseases such as this are expected to become increasingly important. Our work demonstrates the potential value of using Bayesian optimisation in developing cost-effective disease management strategies.

Evaluating Temperature Effects on Bluetongue Virus Serotype 10 and 17 Coinfection in Culicoides sonorensis

“…Climate change has been implicated as a determinant in the emergence of diseases caused by arboviruses [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]. One such arbovirus is bluetongue virus (BTV), the causative agent of bluetongue disease (BT) that has produced devastating epizootics in domestic and wild ruminant populations.…”

Bayesian optimization with informative parametric models via sequential Monte Carlo

“…In particular, BO has been successful in optimization problems involving black-box functions and very little prior information, such as smoothness of the objective function. Examples include hyperparameter tuning (Snoek et al, 2012), robotic exploration (Souza et al, 2014), and chemical design (Shields et al, 2021), and disease control (Spooner et al, 2020). Most of its success relies on the flexibility and well-understood properties of nonparametric modeling frameworks, particularly Gaussian process (GP) regression (Rasmussen and Williams, 2006).…”

A Duplex Fluorescent Microsphere Immunoassay for Detection of Bluetongue and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus Antibodies in Cattle Sera

“…With its considerable animal health and economic impact, bluetongue disease is a World Organization for Animal Health (OIE)-reportable disease [ 19 , 22 ]. Control methods for BTV include limited vaccines [ 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 ], livestock management [ 27 , 28 ], and vector control [ 29 ], with EHDV control often emulating standards set by BTV research [ 30 , 31 , 32 ].…”