Bayesian Regression Model for Estimating Economic Loss Resulting from Two-Ship Collisions

Abstract

This study aims to develop a Bayesian regression model to evaluate the economic loss resulting from two-ship collisions using ten years’ ship collision data for occurrances in Fujian waters. The model results show that the involvement of passenger/cruise ships could cause the largest increment on economic loss in ship collisions. Interestingly, it is found the involvement of fishing ships could greatly increase the ship collision consequence in terms of economic loss. Results also reveal that the higher economic loss is associated with the collisions in the straits/sea areas, under the strong wind/wave conditions, during nighttime period, and in poor visibility conditions. The impact analysis results highlight that judgment errors play a decisive role in increasing the economic loss as compared with the other two types of human errors: lookout failure and operation errors. The results of this study are useful for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to mitigate the economic loss from two-ship collisions. The developed model is also beneficial for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates.

Economic Loss Analysis of Fishing Boat Collisions Considering Spatial-Temporal Interaction Effects

“…Nevertheless, note that the increment of economic loss caused by fishing boat collisions is much larger than that in collisions involving no fishing boats. The higher increment caused by the involvement of fishing boats could be probably because small fishing boats are not compulsorily equipped with the AIS that could make ships visible to each other (Weng et al, 2019). For those fishing boats equipped with AIS devices, they sometimes may shut down the AIS in order to avoid maritime supervision.…”

“…The major focus of the second group is to assess the consequences of ship accidents such as injury or loss of human life (e.g., Jin et al 2001; Talley et al, 2006; Perez-Labajos et al 2009; Yip et al, 2015; Weng et al, 2016) and property damage cost (e.g., Talley et al, 2008; Weng et al, 2018b). Nevertheless, there is only a limited number of studies (Weng et al, 2019) focusing on the assessment of ship accident economic loss which is a major concern of insurance companies.…”

Quantitative Ship Collision Frequency Estimation Models: A Review

“…In [60], a model for estimating ship collision frequency for the Sabine-Neches Waterway (SNWW) located in the southeast Texas was described. The model directly relies on the collected AIS data, and uses ship domain theory (domains represented by circles and ellipses) [61,62] to estimate the ship collision frequency. Locations with the highest risk of collision are also identified.…”