BCG vaccination and the risk of COVID 19: A possible correlation

Ahmed, Sara Atito Ali; Nasr, Mohamed; Elshenawy, Shimaa E.; Hussein, Alaa E.; El-Betar, Ahmed H.; Mohamed, Rania Hassan; El‐Badri, Nagwa

doi:10.1016/j.virol.2021.10.003

Cited by 7 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 117 publications

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“…The spatial correspondence between pre-existing elderly survival and the COVID-19 death rate is evident. in the COVID-19 death rate for the second tercile group relative to the first tercile group, all else constant [16].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Focusing on column (8), and all other things held equal, we find that countries in tercile II (medium survival environment) have an average COVID-19 death rate that is 85% higher (95% CI: 42, 171) than countries in tercile I (low survival environment). To obtain the marginal effects, in percentage terms, for the estimated coefficients in Table 2 , one must perform the following transformation:

[ 16 ]. Similarly, and relative to tercile I (low survival environment), countries in tercile III (high survival environment) have an average COVID-19 death rate that is 109% higher (95% CI: 51, 233).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The exponentiated coefficient exp( β 1 ) is the ratio of the expected geometric mean for the second tercile group over the expected geometric mean for the first tercile group, all else equal. Thus, [exp( β 1 ) − 1] × 100 gives the associated percentage increase, or decrease if the difference is negative, in the COVID-19 death rate for the second tercile group relative to the first tercile group, all else constant [ 16 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In all cases we reject the null hypothesis of ρ = 0. To obtain the marginal effects, in percentage terms, for the estimated coefficients above, one must perform the following transformation:

[ 16 ]. Estimates are from Equation (13).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our theoretical interest is in the estimate of β, which we expect to be negative, implying that, other things equal, a 1% increase in the age-specific all-cause death rate is associated with a β percent decrease in the associated age-specific COVID-19 death rate. Table 4 reports the coefficient estimates for Equation (16). The model estimates presented in column (1) are generated in the absence of age-interval fixed effects.…”

Section: Age-specific Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Longevity-Frailty Hypothesis: Evidence from COVID-19 Death Rates in Europe

Zahran

Altringer

Prasad

2022

IJERPH

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By the end of spring (31 May), the COVID-19 death rate was remarkably unevenly distributed across the countries in Europe. While the risk of COVID-19 mortality is known to increase with age, age-specific COVID-19 death rates across Europe were similarly unevenly distributed. To explain these mortality distributions, we present a simple model where more favorable survival environments promote longevity and the accumulation of health frailty among the elderly while less favorable survival environments induce a mortality selection process that results in lower health frailty. Because the age-related conditions of frailty render the elderly less resistant to SARS-CoV-2, pre-existing survival environments may be non-obviously positively related to the COVID-19 death rate. To quantify the survival environment parameter of our model, we leveraged historic cohort- and period-based age-specific probabilities of death and life expectancies at age 65 across Europe. All variables are significantly correlated with indicators of frailty like elderly dependence on others for personal and household care for a subset of European countries. With respect to COVID-19 death rates, we find significant positive relationships between our survival indicators and COVID-19 death rates across Europe, a result that is robust to statistical control for the capacity of a healthcare system to treat and survive infected persons, the timing and stringency of non-pharmaceutical interventions, population density, age structure, case rates and the volume of inbound international travelers, among other factors. To address possible concerns over reporting heterogeneity across countries, we show that results are robust to the substitution of our response variable for a measure of cumulative excess mortality. Also consistent with the intuition of our model, we also show a strong negative association between age-specific COVID19 death rates and pre-existing all-cause age-specific mortality rates for a subset of European countries. Overall, results support the notion that variation in pre-existing frailty, resulting from heterogeneous survival environments, partially accounts for striking differences in COVID-19 death during the first wave of the pandemic.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In all cases we reject the null hypothesis of ρ = 0. To obtain the marginal effects, in percentage terms, for the estimated coefficients above, one must perform the following transformation:

[ 16 ]. Estimates are from Equation (13).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Age-specific Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The Longevity-Frailty Hypothesis: Evidence from COVID-19 Death Rates in Europe

Zahran

Altringer

Prasad

2022

IJERPH

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Clinical and laboratory profile and outcomes of hospitalized COVID‐19 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Ghana – A single‐center study

Hardy

Libhaber

Ofori

et al. 2022

Endocrino Diabet & Metabol

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impact of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination on the course of COVID-19

Gałązka

2022

J Educ Health Sport

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Nowadays, Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is the most commonly used vaccine worldwide, used typically for tuberculosis but also in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer management. Basing on previously confirmed antiviral features of BCG and first statistic data reports, BCG usage in COVID-19 prevention was claimed and its potential molecular mechanism was searched. In scientific literature there was 10 publications proving several possible mechanism of BCG interaction with SARS-CoV-2 infection immune response. The most often was cross-reactivity between various BCG and SARS-CoV-2 antigens, including those crucial for their clinical effects. In most cases, those antigens linking was shown according to bioinformatical research. According to this research, the potential role of BCG in COVID-19 management should be considered as significant, at least until the clinical trials conducted nowadays will be over.

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BCG vaccination and the risk of COVID 19: A possible correlation

Cited by 7 publications

References 117 publications

The Longevity-Frailty Hypothesis: Evidence from COVID-19 Death Rates in Europe

The Longevity-Frailty Hypothesis: Evidence from COVID-19 Death Rates in Europe

Clinical and laboratory profile and outcomes of hospitalized COVID‐19 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Ghana – A single‐center study

impact of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination on the course of COVID-19

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