T he association between higher blood pressure (BP) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been well established. [1][2][3] In addition to average BP values, BP variability (BPV) may be associated with CKD.4-9 BPV consists of shortterm BPV (eg, beat-to-beat and within 24 hour) and long-term BPV (eg, day-by-day and visit-to-visit BPV). 10,11 The implications of long-term BPV are less defined, particularly its effects on kidney.Observational studies examining longitudinal associations between long-term BPV and development/progression of CKD were conducted in populations with diabetes mellitus or CKD. [4][5][6][7] Diabetes mellitus and CKD could have affected both the BPV (via autonomic nerve dysfunction and vascular stiffness) and renal function of participants, and thus the results may be limited by confounding and reverse causality. 9,10 The mechanisms behind the postulated association of higher long-term BPV and Abstract-Whether long-term blood pressure (BP) variability among individuals without diabetes mellitus is associated with new-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk, independently of other BP parameters (eg, mean BP, cumulative exposure to BP) and metabolic profile changes during follow-up, remains uncertain. We used data from a nationwide study of 48 587 Japanese adults aged 40 to 74 years (mean age, 61.7 years; 39% men) without diabetes mellitus or CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 or proteinuria by dipstick). BP was measured at baseline and during 3 annual follow-up visits (4 visits). BP variability was defined as standard deviation (SD) and average real variability during the 4 visits. At the year 3 follow-up visit, 6.3% of the population had developed CKD. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, 1 SD increases in SD SBP (per 5 mmHg), SD DBP (per 3 mmHg), average real variability SBP (per 6 mmHg), and average real variability DBP (per 4 mmHg) were associated with new-onset CKD (odds ratios [ORs] and 95% confidence intervals, 1.15 [1.11-1.20], 1.08 [1.04-1.12], 1.13 [1.09-1.17], 1.06 [1.02-1.10], respectively; all P<0.01) after adjustment for clinical characteristics, and with mean BP from year 0 to year 3. The associations of SD BP and average real variability BP with CKD remained significant after additional adjustments for metabolic parameter changes during follow-up (ORs, 1.06-1.15; all P<0.01). Sensitivity analyses by sex, antihypertensive medication use, and the presence of hypertension showed similar conclusions. Among those in the middle-aged and elderly general population without diabetes mellitus, long-term BP variability during 3 years was associated with new-onset CKD risk, independently of mean or cumulative exposure to BP and metabolic profile changes during follow-up. 12-14 may contribute to CKD incidence and progression. However, no studies have assessed whether long-term BPV is associated with incident CKD independent of other BP parameters (eg, mean BP, cumulative exposure to BP) and metabolic parameter changes during follow-up.Using a ...