Before the storm: antecedent conditions as regulators of hydrologic and biogeochemical response to extreme climate events

McMillan, Sara K.; Wilson, Henry F.; Tague, Christina; Hanes, Daniel M.; Inamdar, Shreeram; Karwan, D. L.; Loecke, Terrance D.; Morrison, Jonathan; Murphy, Sheila F.; Vidon, P.

doi:10.1007/s10533-018-0482-6

Cited by 43 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…Rain falling on frozen ground or saturated soils may further increase rates of winter runoff (Shanley and Chalmers , McMillan et al. ), though we were unable to examine such phenomena with our data set. In addition to these general trends, an increase in the frequency of rain‐on‐snow events could have implications for water quality.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Contosta

Casson

Garlick³

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Winter is an understudied but key period for the socioecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid‐ and high‐latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here, we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross‐cutting understanding of (1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and (2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector‐borne diseases, and human health, recreation, and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socioecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Contosta

Casson

Garlick³

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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“…First, storm events of varying sizes and with varying antecedent conditions should be further examined. This study focused on a 1‐year storm event without any recent large flow events prior to the storm event, but previous research has suggested that storm size and antecedent conditions likely play an important role in the degree of N removal (Gergel et al, ; McMillan et al, ). Additionally, future research should examine the seasonal variability of N within dam‐impacted systems.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm effects on nitrogen flux and longitudinal variability in a river–reservoir system

Keys

Caudill

Scott

2019

River Research & Apps

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Sustainable management of the nitrogen (N) cycle remains a considerable global challenge that has major implications for aquatic ecosystems. Dams play a critical yet often neglected role in addressing this challenge as they increase hydraulic residence time and denitrification potential. However, during storm events when the majority of N loading occurs, less is known about the effects dams have on N fate and transport processes. Here, we examined the flux of N species and phosphorus (P) and longitudinal profiles of nitrate (NO 3 − ) along a sixth-order river-reservoir system at baseflow and across the falling limb of a multiday, 1-year storm hydrograph. During the storm event, the reservoir reduced total NO 3 − flux by 19.1% and P flux by 12.7%.On the contrary, ammonium (NH 4 + ) fluxes were 200% higher downstream of the dam in comparison with fluxes into the reservoir, indicating that there was a substantial net export of NH 4 + from the reservoir during the storm event. Longitudinally along the river to reservoir transition, a breakpoint of statistical significance was identified, highlighting the sharp contrast between NO 3 − concentrations within the river and reservoir. Results suggest that frequent storm events such as the one presented here can greatly alter N removal processes in river-reservoir systems. Overall, this study highlights the need to better understand the role that storm events play in river-reservoir N cycling dynamics.

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“…6; Hirsch, 2012). As the aftermath of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee makes clear, successive extreme events, while rare, can intensify nutrient export from watersheds (McMillan et al, 2018). Better knowledge of the hydrometeorological and land management conditions that make these extreme events more likely would improve efforts to curtail P losses in the Chesapeake Bay watershed in a changing climate (Michalak, 2016).…”

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Phosphorus and the Chesapeake Bay: Lingering Issues and Emerging Concerns for Agriculture

Kleinman

Fanelli

Hirsch³

et al. 2019

J of Env Quality

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Hennig Brandt's discovery of phosphorus (P) occurred during the early European colonization of the Chesapeake Bay region. Today, P, an essential nutrient on land and water alike, is one of the principal threats to the health of the bay. Despite widespread implementation of best management practices across the Chesapeake Bay watershed following the implementation in 2010 of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) to improve the health of the bay, P load reductions across the bay's 166,000‐km2 watershed have been uneven, and dissolved P loads have increased in a number of the bay's tributaries. As the midpoint of the 15‐yr TMDL process has now passed, some of the more stubborn sources of P must now be tackled. For nonpoint agricultural sources, strategies that not only address particulate P but also mitigate dissolved P losses are essential. Lingering concerns include legacy P stored in soils and reservoir sediments, mitigation of P in artificial drainage and stormwater from hotspots and converted farmland, manure management and animal heavy use areas, and critical source areas of P in agricultural landscapes. While opportunities exist to curtail transport of all forms of P, greater attention is required toward adapting P management to new hydrologic regimes and transport pathways imposed by climate change. Core Ideas At the midpoint of the Chesapeake TMDL, dissolved P is increasing in some tributaries. Lingering concerns include legacy P, artificial drainage, animal heavy use areas. Extreme events represent an acute risk to water quality.

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Before the storm: antecedent conditions as regulators of hydrologic and biogeochemical response to extreme climate events

Cited by 43 publications

References 88 publications

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Storm effects on nitrogen flux and longitudinal variability in a river–reservoir system

Phosphorus and the Chesapeake Bay: Lingering Issues and Emerging Concerns for Agriculture

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