Behavioral biases and heuristics in perceptions of COVID‐19 risks and prevention decisions

Abstract

This study adds to an emerging literature on the factors associated with individual perceptions of COVID-19 risks and decision-making processes related to prevention behaviors. We conducted a survey in the Netherlands (N = 3600) in June-July 2020 when the first peak of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths had passed, and lockdown measures had been eased. Dutch policies relied heavily on individual prevention behaviors to mitigate a second infection wave. We examine whether biases and heuristics that have been observed in how people perceive and respond to other risks also apply to the newly emergent risks posed by COVID-19. The results indicate that people simplify risk using threshold models and that risk perceptions are related with personal experiences with COVID-19 and experiences of close others, supporting the availability heuristic. We also observe that prevention behavior is more strongly associated with COVID-19 risk perceptions and feelings toward the risk than with local indicators of COVID-19 risks, and that prevention behavior is related with herding. Support for government lockdown measures is consistent with preferences that may contribute to the not-in-my-term-of-office bias. In addition, we offer insights into the role of trust, worry, and demographic characteristics in shaping perceptions of COVID-19 risks and how these factors relate with individual prevention behaviors and support for government prevention measures. We provide several lessons for the design of policies that limit COVID-19 risks, including risk communication strategies and appeals to social norms. Perhaps more importantly, our analysis allows for learning lessons to mitigate the risks of future pandemics.

Differences in Stakeholders’ Perception of the Impact of COVID-19 on Clinical Care and Decision-Making

“…Such dissociation between the perception of own risks during the pandemic and the risk of others was similarly reported for the general population [ 10 ] and for healthcare managers [ 18 ]. Similarly, a dissociation between individual pandemic risk perception and local indicators of COVID-19 risks was found [ 5 , 12 ].…”

“…The personal reflection of the pandemic consequences appears to be of high relevance since the individual perception of risk guides response and health-related decision-making [ 10 , 11 ]. The evaluation of COVID-19-related risks and decision-making processes mainly focused on prevention and vaccination behaviors [ 12 , 13 ]. However, in other clinical entities, compliance with treatment and the handling of evidence deficiencies also rapidly affected clinical management, individual behavior, and outcome [ 14 ].…”

Tackling steroid phobia: Insights from behavioural economics and psychological approaches

“…Personal experiences with the virus could potentially amplify perceptions of risk and the severity of its consequences. 24 Furthermore, the availability heuristic may serve as a catalyst for steroid phobia. This phenomenon refers to the fear of steroids that individuals may develop based on inaccurate information disseminated through mass media and social networks.…”

“…The availability heuristic is also applicable in understanding risk perceptions associated with COVID‐19. Personal experiences with the virus could potentially amplify perceptions of risk and the severity of its consequences 24 …”

Abrupt peaks in perceived risk of occasional drug use after changing the question order in a repeated self-administered survey

“…Among the subjective phenomena prone to question order effects are people's risk perceptions on health-related issues, which are relevant in predicting future decisions and actions of people regarding such issues and implementing strategies to control and reduce the associated health and social harm. Thus, question-order effects have been identified when measuring risk perceptions on diseases/causes of death (cancer, COVID-19, homicide), psychiatric patients, environmental hazards (nuclear power, second-hand smoke, air pollution, food preservatives, electromagnetic radiations, traffic accidents) and health-related behaviors (tobacco, alcohol or drug use) (24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29)(30)(31)(32).…”