Behavioral Biases in Daily Fantasy Baseball: The Case of the Hot Hand

Losak, Jeremy; Weinbach, Andrew P.; Paul, Rodney J.

doi:10.1177/15270025221128955

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 27 publications

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“…Pivotal research by Brown and Sauer (35) posited that the mere belief of the hot hand phenomenon could impact the pointspread betting market. Various other studies have shown that bettors tend to favor hot teams (36,37), and this has even been shown to transpire among more recent methods of sports gambling [e.g., in daily fantasy sports when setting lineups; (38)]. That said, further research in this area needs to be explored to better contextualize the specific effects of blowouts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“This is fine”: the impact of blowouts on subsequent game performance in the National Hockey League (NHL)

Chachad,

Pradhan,

Medina

2024

Front. Sports Act. Living

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Blowouts in sports involve large margins of victory or loss between teams and have long been perceived as influencing subsequent performances by athletes, coaches, fans, and other stakeholders. Under the backdrop of the hot hand ph enomenon, the current study explores the impact of blowouts on subsequent game performance in the National Hockey League (NHL). Specifically, we examine the potential carryover of a “hot (or cold) hand” on the subsequent game following a large win or loss. In our study, we defined blowouts as outlying goal differentials for regular season games (i.e., a difference of approximately 6 goals between teams in a single game based on 3 standard deviations from the mean goal differential during the sampled period). Using this criterion, data from 285 games over the 2005–06 to 2018–19 NHL regular seasons were gathered for analysis. We performed a series of multiple regressions using blowout goal differential as the main predictor, adjusting for location of the subsequent game, number of time zones from the home base city, whether the subsequent game was a back-to-back, and winning percentages of the team and opponent. Our results revealed no significant over or under performance by teams that either won through a blowout or those that lost by a blowout. Our findings are consistent with previous work in other and similar sports contexts. Practical applications and future directions for research are discussed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“This is fine”: the impact of blowouts on subsequent game performance in the National Hockey League (NHL)

Chachad,

Pradhan,

Medina

2024

Front. Sports Act. Living

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The most likeable soccer players and the least likeable hockey players are in greater demand

Kotrba,

Strnadová,

Martinez

et al. 2024

J Econ Inequal

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Does Smart Money Believe in the Hot Hand? Evidence From Daily Fantasy Baseball

Losak,

Weinbach,

Paul

2024

American Behavioral Scientist

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The behavior of informed traders, or “smart money,” in sports betting markets has long been of interest to researchers. In this paper, we focus specifically on the behavior of smart money in Major League Baseball (MLB) daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests to determine whether they avoid cognitive-behavioral biases to increase their expected earnings. Specifically, we investigate whether smart money avoids the hot hand bias, where individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of success for players on a hot streak. Using a dataset of MLB DFS contests, we find that winning lineups have lower usage rates for players exhibiting the hot hand compared to losing lineups. This suggests that smart money identifies and fades the hot hand strategy to increase their expected earnings.

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Behavioral Biases in Daily Fantasy Baseball: The Case of the Hot Hand

Cited by 3 publications

References 27 publications

“This is fine”: the impact of blowouts on subsequent game performance in the National Hockey League (NHL)

“This is fine”: the impact of blowouts on subsequent game performance in the National Hockey League (NHL)

The most likeable soccer players and the least likeable hockey players are in greater demand

Does Smart Money Believe in the Hot Hand? Evidence From Daily Fantasy Baseball

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