Behavioural effects of a tradable driving credit scheme: Results of an online stated adaptation experiment in the Netherlands

Abstract

A B S T R A C TThere is increasing interest in the application of tradable credit schemes in the context of personal travel. To anticipate the short-term effects of a distance-based tradable driving credit (TDC) scheme, an innovative stated adaptation experiment has been conducted. Using an activity-based approach, Dutch participants who frequently commute by car could reschedule their car-based activities and alter the travel pattern they reported in an online travel diary for a full week. This paper presents the results of model estimations that describe the likelihood of changing car use and the number of kilometres driven in response to two TDC scenarios. Reductions were larger for those who experienced a loss under the measure compared to those who could expect a gain. Participants who worked more hours and who lived in non-urban areas showed lower car use reduction levels, whereas participants with middle incomes and who were 18-25 years old showed higher reduction levels. A car dependency measure was added to the models to assess how these effects are related to the availability of car use alternatives.

Willingness to change car use under a tradable driving credits scheme: A comparison between Beijing and the Netherlands

“…As expected, whether the scenario implies a loss or a gain does have an effect, as the surplus scenarios significantly differ from the 30% shortage scenario. Marginal price (credit price level) does not have an effect, which is similar to the findings of Dogterom et al (2018), using the same price levels.…”

“…This income effect is also found in the wider road pricing literature (Kockelman & Kalmanje, 2005;Ubbels & Verhoef, 2005;Washbrook, Haider, & Jaccard, 2006;Rienstra et al, 1999). However, when Dogterom et al (2018), using three income levels, found an income effect, they only found middle income households to report a significantly higher willingness to change. The education effect is an effect that has not previously been reported in the very limited strand of literature on TDC behaviors.…”

“…Further, presenting results from China together with results of a similar study from the Netherlands is an important contribution, as this enables a direct comparison of the Chinese findings with findings from a western context. Finally, with regard to the Dutch context, this paper extends the study of Dogterom et al (2018) in that it reveals the preferences of the broader group of car owners instead of only the sub-group of frequent car commuters. This paper seeks to determine whether the influencing factors that are identified for more intense car users also play a role for the category of drivers that is a more representative sample of the car-owner population, including non-workers.…”

“…Raux, Croissant, and Pons (2015), comparing changes in travel behavior in response to both a tradable credit scheme and an equivalent tax in France, found socio-economic characteristics to only weakly affect car use change, only finding a significant negative effect on willingness to adapt car use for older respondents in the case of a tradable credit scheme. Dogterom, Ettema, and Dijst (2018) designed a stated adaptation experiment in which Dutch frequent car commuters could make modifications in their one-week car travel pattern that was recorded prior to the experiment. The respondents were presented with two TDC scenarios, in which the allocated credits represented a 17.5% and a 32.2% reduction in the total VKT of the sample in a first and a second scenario, respectively.…”

“…Only Zanni, Bristow, and Wardman (2013) and Dogterom et al (2018) were able to model behavioral change as a function of the size of the financial gain or loss that is faced by the respondents, as they used an experimental design that was configured to resemble a scheme with an equal-per-capita credit allocation that was applied to drivers with heterogeneous travel demand. Both studies found that facing a loss had a larger impact on willingness to change behavior and that this willingness increased with larger losses and decreased with larger gains.…”