Belief in Optimism Might Be More Problematic than Actual Optimism

Roy, Michael M.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2463252

SSRN Journal

2014

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2463252

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Belief in Optimism Might Be More Problematic than Actual Optimism

Michael M. Roy

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2018

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“…actually receive. 1 A typical finding is that most people regard themselves as better than average, particularly in completing relatively simple tasks and tasks where they have exceeded a minimum skill level. This phenomenon has been named the better-than-average effect and may be seen as a type of overoptimism.…”

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confidence: 99%

Overoptimistic Predictions

Halkjelsvik¹,

Jørgensen²

2018

Time Predictions

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We usually say that a time prediction is overoptimistic when the actual time usage is greater than the predicted time usage. This does not mean that an optimistic or overoptimistic view on time usage was the cause of the too low time prediction. Lack of knowledge, miscalculation during the prediction process, and bad luck in the execution of the project are examples of alternative reasons for too low time predictions. Describing too low, or overoptimistic, time predictions as caused by overoptimism, in the rose-coloured glasses sense, not only is incorrect but may also stop us from seeking other explanations of time overrun besides overoptimism [1]. To clarify the differences between being optimistic or overoptimistic and making optimistic time predictions, let us start by looking into the concepts of optimism and overoptimism. The Oxford English Dictionary describes optimism as 'hopefulness and confidence about the future or the success of something' [2]. If optimism is expecting things to go well, which they sometimes do, we may use the word overoptimism when the expected positive outcome is unwarranted, for instance, due to thinking too highly about one's own skill and likelihood of success. If Patricia is an average chess player but rates her chess skill too highly and predicts that she will win a chess tournament where she is far from the best player, she is overoptimistic. Even if it is very unlikely that Patricia will earn first place in the tournament, it is still possible that she will be extremely lucky and win and, consequently, gave a correct prediction. Overoptimism, as we use the term here, does not always lead to overoptimistic predictions. People tend to be overoptimistic about many things. Married people predict a too low likelihood of getting divorced, car drivers think too highly of their driving skills, and students tend to believe they will obtain better grades on exams than they

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confidence: 99%

Overoptimistic Predictions

Halkjelsvik¹,

Jørgensen²

2018

Time Predictions

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Belief in Optimism Might Be More Problematic than Actual Optimism

Cited by 1 publication

References 55 publications

Overoptimistic Predictions

Overoptimistic Predictions

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