Believable statements of uncertainty and believable science

Lindstrom, Richard M.

doi:10.1007/s10967-016-4912-4

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The correlation plots reveal a slope of 0.1%/°C for an average current of 0.71 nA. This study is a good illustration of the point raised that one should rule out instrumental uncertainties before reverting to new physics [2,36,37].…”

Section: Ra Series @Eneasupporting

confidence: 52%

“…Through the International Reference System (SIR) [33] standardisations performed over half a century worldwide can be compared. Whereas the key comparison data sets may show signs of slight inconsistency [34,35], there are reasons to assume that these are mainly caused by imperfections in the uncertainty assessments [31,36,37] rather than variability in the decay constants. Oscillations of the order of 10 −3 in primary standardisations would not easily go unnoticed at this level of acc uracy, and are therefore unlikely to have occurred.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On decay constants and orbital distance to the Sun—part I: alpha decay

et al. 2016

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Claims that proximity to the Sun causes variation of decay constants at permille level have been investigated for alpha decaying nuclides. Repeated decay rate measurements of 209 Po, 226 Ra, 228 Th, 230 U, and 241 Am sources were performed over periods of 200 d up to two decades at various nuclear metrology institutes around the globe. Residuals from the exponential decay curves were inspected for annual oscillations. Systematic deviations from a purely exponential decay curve differ in amplitude and phase from one data set to another and appear attributable to instabilities in the instrumentation and measurement conditions. The most stable activity measurements of α decaying sources set an upper limit between 0.0006% and 0.006% to the amplitude of annual oscillations in the decay rate. There are no apparent indications for systematic oscillations at a level of weeks or months. Oscillations in phase with Earth's orbital distance to the sun could not be observed within 10 −5 -10 −6 range precision.

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Section: Ra Series @Eneasupporting

confidence: 52%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On decay constants and orbital distance to the Sun—part I: alpha decay

et al. 2016

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“…Good metrology entails a detailed understanding of the uncertainty budget [70], and good communication thereof. The conclusions of Lindstrom [71] with respect to the roles of the authors, reviewers and editors of scientific journals remain essential for producing believable science. (2020) 80:1093 were made.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the recent claim of correlation between radioactive decay rates and space weather

Pommé

Pelczar

2020

Eur. Phys. J. C

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In recent literature, several authors have challenged the validity of the exponential-decay law, based on observed variations in radioactive decay rate measurements beyond statistical accuracy. Tentative explanations have been sought in external interferences influencing the decay process, such as interactions of the nuclei with solar and cosmic neutrinos. Given the important implications of such statements on theoretical and practical level, one would expect that they are backed up with radionuclide metrology of the highest quality. In reality, they share the common traits of using poor metrology and incomplete uncertainty analysis with respect to the stability of the measurement technique. In this paper, new claims of correlations between decay rates and space weather are questioned.

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“…At the heart of this controversy are the metrological difficulties inherent to the measurement of half-lives [28–30]. From a metrological point of view, it is obvious that instruments, electronics, geometry and background may vary due to external influences such as temperature, pressure, humidity and natural or man-made sources of radioactivity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence against solar influence on nuclear decay constants

et al. 2016

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The hypothesis that proximity to the Sun causes variation of decay constants at permille level has been tested and disproved. Repeated activity measurements of mono-radionuclide sources were performed over periods from 200 days up to four decades at 14 laboratories across the globe. Residuals from the exponential nuclear decay curves were inspected for annual oscillations. Systematic deviations from a purely exponential decay curve differ from one data set to another and are attributable to instabilities in the instrumentation and measurement conditions. The most stable activity measurements of alpha, beta-minus, electron capture, and beta-plus decaying sources set an upper limit of 0.0006% to 0.008% to the amplitude of annual oscillations in the decay rate. Oscillations in phase with Earth’s orbital distance to the Sun could not be observed within a 10−6 to 10−5 range of precision. There are also no apparent modulations over periods of weeks or months. Consequently, there is no indication of a natural impediment against sub-permille accuracy in half-life determinations, renormalisation of activity to a distant reference date, application of nuclear dating for archaeology, geo- and cosmochronology, nor in establishing the SI unit becquerel and seeking international equivalence of activity standards.

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Believable statements of uncertainty and believable science

Cited by 6 publications

References 41 publications

On decay constants and orbital distance to the Sun—part I: alpha decay

On decay constants and orbital distance to the Sun—part I: alpha decay

On the recent claim of correlation between radioactive decay rates and space weather

Evidence against solar influence on nuclear decay constants

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