We review the data gathering and analysis procedure used in real Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm experiments with photons and we illustrate the procedure by analyzing experimental data. Based on this analysis, we construct event-based computer simulation models in which every essential element in the experiment has a counterpart. The data is analyzed by counting single-particle events and two-particle coincidences, using the same procedure as in experiments. The simulation models strictly satisfy Einstein's criteria of local causality, do not rely on any concept of quantum theory or probability theory, and reproduce the results of quantum theory for a quantum system of two S = 1/2 particles. We present a rigorous analytical treatment of these models and show that they may yield results that are in exact agreement with quantum theory. The apparent conflict with the folklore on Bell's theorem, stating that such models are not supposed to exist, is resolved. Finally, starting from the principles of probable inference, we derive the probability distributions of quantum theory of the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm experiment without invoking concepts of quantum theory.