Benthic-pelagic coupling in coastal seas – Modelling macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing in response to organic matter supply

Ehrnsten, Eva; Norkko, Alf; Timmermann, Karen; Gustafsson, Bo

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2019.04.003

Cited by 38 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 96 publications

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“…The biomass of Limecola also followed a decrease in food availability over depth resulting in extinction at around 90–120 m depth in the Bothnian Bay and Baltic Proper seen both in simulations and observations. The simulated biomass of this group was in the high end compared to observations in the Gulf of Finland, where model‐data agreement was good for the westernmost Gulf of Finland (see also Ehrnsten, Norkko, et al, ), but not towards the east, where observed biomasses were lower for reasons that we cannot explain. It is tempting to assume that the decrease would be due to lower salinities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 44%

“…Globally, estimates of macrofaunal respiration scatter considerably from negligible up to 70% of total benthic respiration (Glud, ; Rodil, Attard, Norkko, Glud, & Norkko, ; Wenzhofer, Riess, & Luth, ), with a median of 15%–20% in estuaries estimated by Herman et al (). One reason for the slightly lower estimate could be the low metabolic rate used in the current study for the dominating species L. balthica , derived from studies showing very low production rates in the Baltic Sea (Ehrnsten, Norkko, et al, ). Mean annual respiration per biomass (R/B) as an emergent property of the model was 1.6 for Limecola , 3.2 for deposit‐feeders, 3.6 for predators and 1.8 for total macrofauna in 1990–2012.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…The Gulf of Finland (see also Ehrnsten, Norkko, et al, 2019), but not towards the east, where observed biomasses were lower for reasons that we cannot explain. It is tempting to assume that the decrease would be due to lower salinities.…”

Section: Model Validation and Scopementioning

confidence: 72%

“…The long‐term and seasonal dynamics of BALTSEM have been validated previously (see model description). Ehrnsten, Norkko, et al () validated BMM against time‐series of macrofauna biomass in two coastal sites of the Baltic Sea, and Ehrnsten, Bauer, et al () studied the sensitivity of the model to changes in temperature, organic matter sedimentation rate and oxygen conditions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previously, Timmerman et al () estimated the balance between biomass lost and gained with changes in nutrient loading at six stations in the deeper parts of the Baltic Sea using a physiological macrofauna model driven by outputs from a physical–biogeochemical model, but did not investigate the effects on carbon cycling. This model was further developed to simulate the biomass and metabolic carbon processing of benthic fauna in two coastal areas in the near past (Ehrnsten, Norkko, Timmermann, & Gustafsson, ) and to systematically investigate the effects of temperature, food supply and hypoxia on local benthic communities in the Baltic Proper (Ehrnsten, Bauer, & Gustafsson, ). Here, we extend these developments to explore the response in biomass and metabolic carbon processing of benthic macrofauna to the combined effects of different scenarios of changing nutrient loads and climate on the scale of the Baltic Sea over a century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea—Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate

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Nutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding the future functioning of coastal ecosystems, as it is an important component linking the benthic and pelagic realms. In this study, we extended an existing model of benthic macrofauna coupled with a physical–biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea to study the combined effects of changing nutrient loads and climate on biomass and metabolism of benthic macrofauna historically and in scenarios for the future. Based on a statistical comparison with a large validation dataset of measured biomasses, the model showed good or reasonable performance across the different basins and depth strata in the model area. In scenarios with decreasing nutrient loads according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan but also with continued recent loads (mean loads 2012–2014), overall macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing were projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century despite improved oxygen conditions at the seafloor. Climate change led to intensified pelagic recycling of primary production and reduced export of particulate organic carbon to the seafloor with negative effects on macrofaunal biomass. In the high nutrient load scenario, representing the highest recorded historical loads, climate change counteracted the effects of increased productivity leading to a hyperbolic response: biomass and carbon processing increased up to mid‐21st century but then decreased, giving almost no net change by the end of the 21st century compared to present. The study shows that benthic responses to environmental change are nonlinear and partly decoupled from pelagic responses and indicates that benthic–pelagic coupling might be weaker in a warmer and less eutrophic sea.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 44%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Model Validation and Scopementioning

confidence: 72%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea—Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate

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Provision of aquatic ecosystem services as a consequence of societal changes: The case of the Baltic Sea

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Aquatic ecosystem services are important for human wellbeing, but they are much less studied than terrestrial ecosystem services. The objectives of this study are to broaden, itemize and exemplify the human‐nature interactions in modeling the future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. We include shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, used extensively in climate research, as drivers of change for the future development of the Baltic Sea. Then we use biogeochemical and ecosystem models to demonstrate the future development of exemplary supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services for two distinct combinations of regionally downscaled global climate and socioeconomic futures. According to the model simulations, the two global futures (“Sustainable well‐being” vs. “Fossil‐fuelled development”) studied lead to clearly deviating trajectories in the provision of marine ecosystem services. Under the “Sustainable well‐being”‐scenario primary production decreases by 20%, catches of demersal fish increases and the recreation opportunities increase significantly by the end of the ongoing century. Under the “fossil‐fuelled development”‐scenario primary production doubles, fisheries focus on less valued pelagic fish and the recreation possibilities will decrease. Long‐term projections of aquatic ecosystem services prepared for alternative global socioeconomic futures can be used by policy makers and managers to adaptively and iteratively adjust mitigation and adaptation effort with plausible future changes in the drivers of water pollution.

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Identifying biotic drivers of population dynamics in a benthic–pelagic community

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Benthic-pelagic coupling in coastal seas – Modelling macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing in response to organic matter supply

Cited by 38 publications

References 96 publications

The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea—Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate

The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea—Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate

Provision of aquatic ecosystem services as a consequence of societal changes: The case of the Baltic Sea

Identifying biotic drivers of population dynamics in a benthic–pelagic community

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