Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

Calomiris, Charles W.; Pritchett, Jonathan B.

doi:10.1257/aer.20131483

Cited by 30 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The salience of these concerns is reinforced by the notion that historic secessions have often been marked by economic uncertainty and fluctuating expectations (Calomiris and Pritchett, 2016). The historical case of the Soviet Union shows the sizeable negative impact that such a setting may have on both internal trade as well as economic growth.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Breaking the Unbreakable Union: Nationalism, Disintegration and the Soviet Economic Collapse

Suesse

2018

The Economic Journal

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This article investigates the effect of prospective secessions on economic integration and growth by examining the break-up of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Firstly, I show theoretically how regional elites had an incentive to restrict domestic trade once secession from the Union became possible. Secondly, I show empirically that the increased likelihood of secessions by the Union's member republics strongly cut domestic trade. Thirdly, I show how this explains the severity of the Soviet output fall. These patterns persist once I instrument for prospective secessions with nationalist agendas that are exogenous to trade or growth.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In both cases, the possibility of secession may be enough to deter trade or investment, even without secession actually having taken place. The salience of these concerns is reinforced by the notion that historic secessions have often been marked by economic uncertainty and fluctuating expectations (Calomiris and Pritchett, 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Breaking the Unbreakable Union: Nationalism, Disintegration and the Soviet Economic Collapse

Suesse

2018

The Economic Journal

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“…16 The number of slaves would be related to agricultural productivity and land values (Fogel and Engerman, 1974). Also, slavery and slaveholding played a critical role in political beliefs surrounding the Civil War (Calomiris and Pritchett, 2016), but there is little evidence that free blacks were related to contemporaneous political attitudes. There is also some evidence that slaveholding is related to persistent preferences for distribution (Acharya et al, 2016).…”

Section: B Considering Other Potential Instrumentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Black Politicians Matter?

Logan¹

2018

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This paper exploits the history of Reconstruction after the American Civil War to estimate the causal effect of politician race on public finance. I overcome the endogeneity between electoral preferences and black representation using the number of free blacks in the antebellum era (1860) as an instrument for black political leaders during Reconstruction. IV estimates show that an additional black official increased per capita county tax revenue by $0.20, more than an hour's wage at the time. The effect was not persistent, however, disappearing entirely at Reconstruction's end. Consistent with the stated policy objectives of black officials, I find positive effects of black politicians on land tenancy and show that exposure to black politicians decreased the black-white literacy gap by more than 7%. These results suggest that politician race has large effects on public finance and individual outcomes over and above electoral preferences for redistribution.

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“…Together, the empirical findings only a few dozen were from the Upper South. Pritchett and Calomiris (2013) recognized the limits of the Fogel and Engerman data and collected Conveyance Records for many more slave sales. Their data-set was collected in order to examine the consequences of the threat of secession and the election of Abraham Lincoln as President.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Slave Escape, Prices, and the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850

Lennon

2016

The Journal of Law and Economics

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In the antebellum South, slave transport between the Upper and Deep South was profitable due to a persistent gap in slave prices between the two regions. The gap has been attributed to agricultural productivity differences. This paper examines another potential explanation: regional variation in the chance of successful escape. To do so, the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850 is exploited as a natural experiment. The Act strengthened slave-owners' property rights reducing the likelihood of successful escape. Providing identification, the Act had a bigger impact in border states, where escape to the Free states was arguably easier.Using data from probate records, estimates suggest a large fraction (between 20 and 30% depending on specification) of the observed price difference disappears after the 1850 Fugitive Slave Act. Estimates are robust to changes in sample restrictions, spatial composition effects, and placebo tests on the Act's implementation date. The findings are also supported by a reduction in the rewards offered and frequency of advertisements for runaways from newspaper advertisements at the time.

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Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

Cited by 30 publications

References 19 publications

Breaking the Unbreakable Union: Nationalism, Disintegration and the Soviet Economic Collapse

Breaking the Unbreakable Union: Nationalism, Disintegration and the Soviet Economic Collapse

Do Black Politicians Matter?

Slave Escape, Prices, and the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850

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