Between Large-Nand Small-NAnalyses: Historical Comparison of Thirty Insurgency Case Studies

Insurgencies as Networks of Event Orderings

“…(The pattern is robust across a range of thresholds; results available from first-listed author.) Figure 2 also indicates the outcomes of these 30 insurgences as coded by Paul et al (2013): government wins, insurgent wins, and mixed outcomes (all of the latter being seen by the authors as favoring the insurgents, as in the Congo case reviewed previously).…”

“…Our departures from Abell’s approach result from the specifics of our data context. As was also true of Schoon’s (2014) innovative study, our data set pertains to the world’s 30 most recently begun insurgencies that terminated in the interval from 1978 to 2008 (Paul, Clarke, and Grill 2010a; Paul et al 2013). 2 In-depth qualitative analyses, confined however to available English-language sources, were constructed and published in a 327-page volume (Paul et al 2010b).…”

“…This list was augmented by 11 insurgencies that met the criteria subsequent to 1999, and then many cases were excluded (those classified as coups, countercoups, and insurrections). From the remaining 89 insurgencies in the period 1934 through 2008, Paul et al (2013) selected the 30 most recent resolved cases: those that began and ended between 1978 and 2008.…”

“…All these are freely available for download at http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG964.html. Additional analyses appear in Paul et al (2013).…”