Between mathematical formalism, normative choice rules, and the behavioural sciences: The emergence of rational choice theories in the late 1940s and early 1950s

Herfeld, Catherine

doi:10.1080/09672567.2017.1385984

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…This early engagement reflected Morgenstern's efforts -especially in the first chapter -to link the mathematics of game theory to a set of conceptual ideas long accepted among economists. Widely read book reviews by Marschak (1946) and Hurwicz (1945) demonstrating the potential benefits for analyzing economic situations further substantiated the relevance of game theory for economics (Herfeld 2017). However, the broader diffusion process of the original contributions varied across domains not only with respect to the time and pace of adoption but also with respect to the objects transferred, i.e., the conceptual, methodological, and theoretical elements from game theory that were transferred and ultimately used in each domain (e.g., Erickson 2010, Herfeld/Doehne 2019, Isaac 2010.…”

Section: Model Templates Rational Choice Models and Their Transfermentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The history of rational choice models has been explored mainly by focusing on their adoption in economics (e.g., Giocoli 2003, Herfeld 2017, Morgan 2006, Moscati 2018. While especially the early years of the history of game theory in economics are well studied (Dimand/Dimand 1995, Dimand 2000, Erickson 2010, Giocoli 2003, Leonard 2010, Weintraub 1992, 2002, the history of their adoption in other social sciences has received less attention (but see, e.g., Amadae 2003, Erickson 2010, Erickson et al 2013, Isaac 2010.…”

Section: Rational Choice Models and The Role Of Narratives In Analyzi...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Role of Narratives in Transferring Rational Choice Models into Political Science

Quack

Herfeld²

2023

History of Political Economy

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One striking observation in the history of rational choice models is that those models have not only been used in economics but been spread widely across the social and behavioral sciences. How do such model transfers proceed? By closely studying the early efforts to transfer such models by William Riker—a major protagonist in pushing the adoption of game-theoretic models in political science—this article examines the transfer process as one of “translation” by which abstract and mathematical rational choice models were constructed and modified such that they applied to a specific target system in a new domain. In this article, the argument is that to overcome a set of challenges that hampered the straightforward transfer of game-theoretic models into political science, Riker complemented theoretical and conceptual modifications of von Neumann and Morgenstern's game schemes with the use of narratives to turn them into applicable and testable models. As such, those narratives played a crucial role in enabling their transfer and ultimately facilitated the applicability of game-theoretic models in political science.

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Section: Model Templates Rational Choice Models and Their Transfermentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Rational Choice Models and The Role Of Narratives In Analyzi...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Narratives in Transferring Rational Choice Models into Political Science

Quack

Herfeld²

2023

History of Political Economy

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“…It was a larger theoretical framework that was both in agreement with the findings of the Chicago scholars and, crucially, a result of the theory expected utility previously established by von Neumann and Morgenstern. This theory was considered by economists at the Cowles Commission to provide economics with much sought-after scientific rigour (Herfeld, 2017 ).…”

Section: Addressing the Reactive Effects Of The Capmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contextualist model evaluation: models in financial economics and index funds

2023

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Philosophers of science typically focus on the epistemic performance of scientific models when evaluating them. Analysing the effects that models may have on the world has typically been the purview of sociologists of science. We argue that the reactive (or “performative”) effects of models should also figure in model evaluations by philosophers of science. We provide a detailed analysis of how models in financial economics created the impetus for the growing importance of the phenomenon of “passive investing” in financial markets. Considering this case motivates the position that we call contextualism about model evaluation, or model contextualism for short. Model contextualism encompasses standard analyses of the epistemic performance of the model, but also includes their reactive aspects. It entails identifying the epistemic and contextual import of the model, the ways in which a model can engender change in the world (which we call the channels of transmission), and the interactions between the epistemic and reactive import of a model.

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“…Of the twelve Cowles Monograph from number 10 in 1950 on Statistical Inference in Dynamic Models (Koopmans, ed., 1950) eleven were written or edited or co-edited by a future Nobel laureate (and three other future Nobel laureates contributed at least two chapters each), and the citations for their Nobel Memorial Prizes stressed their work in those Cowles Monographs. These awards recognize the pivotal rule of the work done at the Cowles Commission and Foundation in shaping, in addition to structural econometric modeling and the portfolio choice approach to money and finance, key areas of microeconomic theory (see Christ 1952, Hildreth 1986, Mirowski 2002, Düppe and Weintraub 2014a, 2014b, Herfeld 2017, 2018: activity analysis (linear and nonlinear programming), social choice and general equilibrium analysis (but, despite early expressions of interest, not game theory). (Scarf with Hansen 1973).…”

Section: Activity Analysis Social Choice and General Equilibriummentioning

confidence: 99%

The Cowles Commission and Foundation for Research in Economics

Dimand

2019

SSRN Journal

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Founded in 1932 by a newspaper heir disillusioned by the failure of forecasters to predict the Great Crash, the Cowles Commission promoted the use of formal mathematical and statistical methods in economics, initially through summer research conferences in Colorado and through support of the Econometric Society (of which Alfred Cowles was secretary-treasurer for decades). After moving to the University of Chicago in 1939, the Cowles Commission sponsored works, many later honored with Nobel Prizes but at the time out of the mainstream of economics, by Haavelmo, Hurwicz and Koopmans on econometrics, Arrow and Debreu on general equilibrium, Yntema and Mosak on general equilibrium in international trade theory, Arrow on social choice, Koopmans on activity analysis, Klein on macroeconometric modelling, Lange, Marschak and Patinkin on macroeconomic theory, and Markowitz on portfolio choice, but came into intense methodological, ideological and personal conflict with the emerging "Chicago school." This conflict led the Cowles Commission to move to Yale in 1955 as the Cowles Foundation, directed by James Tobin (who had declined to move to Chicago to direct it). The Cowles Foundation remained a leader in the more technical areas of economics, notably with Tobin's "Yale school" of monetary theory, Scarf's computable general equilibrium, Shubik in game theory, and later Phillips and Andrews in econometric theory but as formal methods in economic theory and econometrics pervaded the discipline of economics, Cowles (like the Econometric Society) became less distinct from the rest of economics. This entry is part of an archivally-based history of the Cowles Commission and Foundation commissioned by the Cowles Foundation.

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Between mathematical formalism, normative choice rules, and the behavioural sciences: The emergence of rational choice theories in the late 1940s and early 1950s

Cited by 7 publications

References 34 publications

The Role of Narratives in Transferring Rational Choice Models into Political Science

The Role of Narratives in Transferring Rational Choice Models into Political Science

Contextualist model evaluation: models in financial economics and index funds

The Cowles Commission and Foundation for Research in Economics

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