Beverages Sales in Mexico before and after Implementation of a Sugar Sweetened Beverage Tax

Abstract

ObjectiveTo estimate changes in sales of sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) and plain water after a 1 peso per liter excise SSB tax was implemented in Mexico in January 2014.Material and MethodsWe used sales data from the Monthly Surveys of the Manufacturing Industry from January 2007 to December 2015. We estimated Ordinary Least Squares models to assess changes in per capita sales of SSB and plain water adjusting for seasonality and the global indicator of economic activity.ResultsWe found a decrease of 7.3% in per capita sales of SSB and an increase of 5.2% of per capita sales of plain water in 2014–2015 compared to the pre-tax period (2007–2013).ConclusionsAdjusting for variables that change over time and that are associated with the demand for SSB, we found the tax was associated with a reduction in per capita sales of SSB. The effectiveness of the tax should be evaluated in the medium and long term.

In Mexico, Evidence Of Sustained Consumer Response Two Years After Implementing A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax

“…Results for the two years are very similar to a recent analysis using sales data from the Monthly Surveys of the Manufacturing Industry that shows a 7.3% reduction in sales of SSB two years after the implementation of the tax compared to 2007-2013 (19). Although sales data are less likely to underestimate actual consumption, the data used in the current study allows a better classification of taxed and untaxed beverages and the possibility to adjust and stratify for variables at the household level that are associated with purchases.…”

“…In contrast, aggregated per capita sales data for the country shows an increasing trend of non-SSB beverages since 2001 that continued through 2015 (32). In addition, analyses of the Monthly Surveys of the Manufacturing Industry show an increase in the production sales of still bottled water of 5.2% in the post-tax period compared to 2007-2013, which may reflect that consumers in Mexico are substituting for non-SSBs such as water (19). Each data sources has its limitations, which may be the cause of the discrepancies between aggregate per capita sales data per capita and information on purchases from the panel.…”

“…Subsequent investigations into the approaches used by these groups reveal that they used aggregate sales measures, ignored significant increases in population size, changes in age composition, among other problems (17-19). …”

“…A few studies have already noted that when one adjusts for these various factors aggregate sales per capita show a decline in the second year of the tax (17-19); however these data do not provide the rigorous analysis needed to understand how households overall and of various socioeconomic groups respond to the tax. In addition, these analyses cannot account for other critical factors that might affect household beverage purchases.…”

Introduction of "Sugar Tax" in South Africa: Placebo or panacea to curb the onset of cardio-metabolic diseases?

“…Although this does not exclude the possibility that SSBs might be replaced with other unhealthy dietary options, the decrease in SSB sales was accompanied by a substantial increase in the purchase of bottled water in Berkeley and Mexico, respectively. (39,42,43) Despite all the evidence that supports the notion that a sugar tax has the potential to bring a significant and sustained reduction in SSB consumption, there is not agreement that it would be the correct strategy for South Africa. The Beverage Society of South Africa also projects that the introduction of a sugar tax will lead to the loss of around 60 000 jobs in the beverage industry and also cut their contribution to the South African GDP by approximately R14 billion.…”