Beyond Amyloid: A Machine Learning-Driven Approach Reveals Properties of Potent GSK-3β Inhibitors Targeting Neurofibrillary Tangles

Abstract

Current treatments for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) focus on slowing memory and cognitive decline, but none offer curative outcomes. This study aims to explore and curate the common properties of active, drug-like molecules that modulate glycogen synthase kinase 3β (GSK-3β), a well-documented kinase with increased activity in tau hyperphosphorylation and neurofibrillary tangles—hallmarks of AD pathology. Leveraging quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) data from the PubChem and ChEMBL databases, we employed seven machine learning models: logistic regression (LogR), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), neural networks (NNs), and ensemble majority voting. Our goal was to correctly predict active and inactive compounds that inhibit GSK-3β activity and identify their key properties. Among the six individual models, the NN demonstrated the highest performance with a 79% AUC-ROC on unbalanced external validation data, while the SVM model was superior in accurately classifying the compounds. The SVM and RF models surpassed NN in terms of Kappa values, and the ensemble majority voting model demonstrated slightly better accuracy to the NN on the external validation data. Feature importance analysis revealed that hydrogen bonds, phenol groups, and specific electronic characteristics are important features of molecular descriptors that positively correlate with active GSK-3β inhibition. Conversely, structural features like imidazole rings, sulfides, and methoxy groups showed a negative correlation. Our study highlights the significance of structural, electronic, and physicochemical descriptors in screening active candidates against GSK-3β. These predictive features could prove useful in therapeutic strategies to understand the important properties of GSK-3β candidate inhibitors that may potentially benefit non-amyloid-based AD treatments targeting neurofibrillary tangles.