Beyond annual and seasonal averages: using temporal patterns of precipitation to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient

Abstract

Abstract. 1. Ecologists often make predictions about community richness and diversity using climate variables that include seasonal precipitation totals and mean daily temperatures. While means and totals can be effective predictors to a certain extent, the complexities of faunal-climate relationships might be over-simplified through the use of coarse-grained variables.2. The goal of this study was to investigate less commonly studied climate variables, including indices of intra-annual variation in the timing and intensity of precipitation events that might be used to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient. Data from a long-term, single-observer dataset at four sites in California were examined with Bayesian model averaging and structural equation modelling. Species-specific responses to climate were compared with community responses at each site.3. At lower elevations, it was found that the relative importance of climate variables shifted towards temporal patterns of precipitation, including the timing of the first storm event and the annual number of precipitation events. Heterogeneity among sites was apparent in the importance of specific weather variables, and temporal trends (across years) were detected for a small number of variables. Species-specific results paralleled those obtained from analysis of species richness, thus suggesting a commonality of response to climate across site-specific assemblages.4. Models were improved by inclusion of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices, indicating that regional variables can profitably be included in faunal-climate relationship analyses. These results emphasise the need for researchers to examine climate variables beyond the most readily summarised means and totals.

Environmental drivers of ant species richness and composition across the Argentine Pampas grassland

“…We first screened environmental variables for multicollinearity using pairwise correlations among all variables and check that correlation coefficient was less than 0.75 (Badik et al . ).…”

Pivotal effect of early‐winter temperatures and snowfall on population growth of alpineParnassius smintheusbutterflies

“…, Badik et al. ). Whereas broad indices are relatively easy to obtain and integrate multiple weather variables, they lack the detail needed to identify biological mechanisms causing population change.…”

“…, Badik et al. ), is an important step in identifying and understanding the biological mechanisms underpinning population change and range shifts. Although analyses of butterfly range shifts have often focused on the effects of changing summers (e.g., Kharouba et al.…”

Takeoff temperatures in Melitaea cinxia butterflies from latitudinal and elevational range limits: a potential adaptation to solar irradiance

“…Nadeau et al (2017) considered how spatial and temporal variability of the climate, both now and in the past, might influence both dispersal and thermal tolerance. Badik et al (2015) examined how within-year variation in timing and intensity of precipitation predicted changes in species richness Correspondence: Nikhil K. Advani, World Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th ST NW, Washington DC, 20037, U.S.A. E-mail nkadvani@utexas.edu across an elevational transect. Other models derive predictions by combining experimental measurements of physiological responses with climate envelopes of current distributions (Kearney & Porter, 2009;Araujo et al, 2013;Sunday et al, 2014).…”