Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

Pauw, Pieter; Klein, Richard J.T.; Mbeva, Kennedy; Dzebo, Adis; Cassanmagnago, Davide; Rudloff, Anna

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2122-x

Cited by 94 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Robust evidence and information are important to ensure that the targets and measures proposed are realistic and achievable, and also present a sufficiently high level of ambition. At the same time, clear evidence and data improve the transparency of the NDC (see also Pauw et al, 2018), as well as understanding of economic and financial implications (Levin et al, 2015). This in turn requires human, technical and financial capacity to coordinate and conduct the various assessments.…”

Section: Knowledge and Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ambition in the making: analysing the preparation and implementation process of the Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement

et al. 2020

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Nearly all the world's governments have prepared and submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), setting out their climate pledges under the 2015 Paris Agreement. These NDCs are to be regularly updated, and many countries are expected to submit a new NDC in 2020. While several studies have assessed the content and potential impacts of the NDCs, this article focusses on the preparatory process and asks the question: under what conditions can countries be expected to develop NDCs that are sufficiently ambitious to contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement goals? For some countries, in particular developing nations and emerging economies, the process of preparing and implementing NDCs presents challenges in terms of political support; financial, human and technical resources; and analytical capabilities. With a view to improving future NDCs, this article provides insights from the first round of NDCs. Using results from four surveys carried out in 2015, 2017 and 2018 targeting government representatives and other stakeholders from primarily developing countries and emerging economies, the article finds that the NDC preparation process contributed positively to national climate policy processes. For example, it raised political awareness and preparedness for preparing and implementing climate policies across various ministries and agencies. It also prompted institutional innovation and more coordination between various policy areas. However, more can be done to enhance analytical capacity in order for countries to make commitments based on robust analysis and data.Key policy insights . In many countries, the preparation of the NDCs positively contributed to national climate policy processes by raising awareness and catalysing institutional change. . The NDC process improved political buy-in across government and nongovernment stakeholders thereby laying the foundation for future higher NDC and climate policy ambition. . A better understanding of broader impacts and the involvement of affected stakeholders in a targeted way could be conducive to reaching the goals defined in the Paris Agreement and support realistic, yet ambitious target setting. Conversely, process-related problems may lead to implementation problems. . More analytical, financial and technical resources are needed to implement the first round of NDCs and support countries in preparing future NDC cycles. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Section: Knowledge and Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ambition in the making: analysing the preparation and implementation process of the Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement

et al. 2020

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“…Sharma 2017), for transparency and comparability of its NDC mechanisms (e.g. Pauw et al 2018) and for the 'emissions gap' not addressed (e.g. Victor et al 2017;UNEP 2018).…”

Section: Understanding Participants' Scepticism Towards the Paris Agrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change

et al. 2020

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We surveyed members of the adaptation community about their views on high-end climate change-here defined as global average temperature increase exceeding 2°C at the end of the century-at consecutive conferences in 2016 and 2018. Most strikingly our surveys show that a majority of the community disagrees that the Paris Agreement has reduced the possibility of the world reaching dangerous levels of climate change. Consistent with this, around two thirds of people consulted are considering high-end climate change or using high-end scenarios in their work all the time, or starting to. However, this is still not done by all. Preparedness for the specific threats posed by highend impacts is not keeping pace, and more work needs to be done to strengthen the research basis and understand adaptation needs under high-end climate change. Moreover, views on finding information on impacts and tools for decision-making have not changed between 2016 and 2018, showing that there is no improvement. This situation underlines that the adaptation community needs to do better in supporting exchange of information and data between all actors-in addition to finding and filling knowledge gaps. Despite this, there is widespread support for avoiding delaying large-scale adaptation until we have more certainty.

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“…Other such sites include Climate Analytics (http://climateanalytics.org), the World Resources Institute (http://cait.wri.org/indc), and Carbon Brief. Pauw et al () have also created a useful database of the NDCs (https://klimalog.die-gdi.de/ndc) with categories reflecting the focus and detail of each NDC.…”

Section: Aggregate Assessments Of the Ndcs: Global Temperature And Ementioning

confidence: 99%

Nationally Determined Contributions: Material climate commitments and discursive positioning in the NDCs

Mills‐Novoa

Liverman

2019

WIREs Climate Change

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In the lead‐up to the 2015 Conference of Parties meeting in Paris, 186 countries, representing over 95% of global emissions, submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDCs outline national goals for greenhouse gas emission reductions and identify financial needs for unfolding mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this study, we review various analyses of the NDCs that cover the aggregate impact and strength of emissions reduction commitments and discuss recent literature on the adequacy and sectoral focus of the NDCs. We then argue that the NDCs are more than just goal setting reports; they are important discursive documents that are contested, negotiated, and ongoing. To supplement the existing literature, we examine the discursive narratives embedded in the NDCs from the 19 founding nations of the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the top 10 greenhouse gas emitters. Our literature review of quantitative and sectoral aspects of the NDCs highlights the inadequacy of the NDC commitments in the context of limiting warming to 2°C, discusses the uncertainties in the promised mitigation strategies, and identifies the reliance of many countries on policies such as those on forests or renewable energy. Our own analysis of the discourses in the NDCs adds critical depth by highlighting the stark contrasts in NDC discourses between North and South, as well as between historical emitters and emerging economies. These contrasts reflect deeper debates regarding justice and equity between nations within the UNFCCC negotiations. This article is categorized under: Climate and Development > Decoupling Emissions from Development

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Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

Cited by 94 publications

References 11 publications

Ambition in the making: analysing the preparation and implementation process of the Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement

Ambition in the making: analysing the preparation and implementation process of the Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement

Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change

Nationally Determined Contributions: Material climate commitments and discursive positioning in the NDCs

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