Transplant glomerulopathy (TG) is associated with rapid decline in glomerular filtration rate and poor outcome. We used low-density arrays with a novel probabilistic analysis to characterize relationships between gene transcripts and the development of TG in allograft recipients. Retrospective review identified TG in 10.8% of 963 core biopsies from 166 patients; patients with stable function were studied for comparison. The biopsies were analyzed for expression of 87 genes related to immune function and fibrosis by using real-time PCR , and a Bayesian model was generated and validated to predict histopathology based on gene expression. A total of 57 individual genes were increased in TG compared with stable function biopsies (P < 0. Long-term kidney allograft function continues to improve only modestly, despite dramatic improvements in acute rejection rates and short term patient and graft survivals. Despite its limitations, measurement of serum creatinine remains the primary monitoring modality following kidney transplantation. Significant changes in serum creatinine, and/or the development of proteinuria, result in a series of maneuvers to define the many potential etiologies of acute and chronic allograft dysfunction. Allograft biopsy is the "gold-standard" of these maneuvers, although morphological analysis may not easily distinguish these etiologies. Furthermore, the analysis may be limited in regards to prognostic importance and functional outcome. Thus, identification of biomarkers of allograft failure and the development of tools for their interpretation is of critical interest, both in providing disease detection in a more sensitive and specific fashion, and in allowing sufficient lead time for intervention. Additionally, such markers may allow for risk assessment and medical-regimen tailoring that is personalized to provide optimum outcomes.Transplant glomerulopathy (TG) is a disease of the kidney allograft initiated by endothelial injury. Morphologically, there is widening of the subendothelial space with accumulation of debris, mesangial interpositioning, and matrix deposition in the glomerular capillary wall, as well as capillary wall double-contouring in the absence of immune complex Supported in part by the US Navy Bureau of Medicine and Surgery and by the intramural research program of the National Institute of Diabetes Digestive and Kidney Diseases Z01-DK062008 (R.B.M.).The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Navy, Department of Defense, nor the US Government. This work was prepared as part of our official duties. Title 17 U.S.C. §105 provides that "Copyright protection under this title is not available for any work of the United States Government." Title 17 U.S.C. §101 defines a US Government work as a work prepared by a military service member or employee of the US Government as part of that person's official duties.The author contributions are as follows: conception and design: E.A.E., ...