Beyond model metrics: The perils of calibrating hydrologic models

Triana, Juan S. Acero; Chu, Maria L.; Moriasi, Daniel N.; Steiner, Jean L.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124032

Cited by 38 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…A calibração do modelo é o processo de ajuste dos melhores valores da variável resposta estimados pelo modelo aos dados observados, a fim de minimizar as diferenças entre as variáveis estimadas e observadas (Blainski et al, 2017;Pereira et al, 2016;Sarrazin et al, 2016;Bhattacharjee et al, 2019;Triana et al, 2019;Tegegne et al, 2019). Este procedimento foi realizado de maneira semiautomática, com a utilização do software SWAT: Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP).…”

Section: Análise De Sensibilidade Calibração E Validação Do Modelounclassified

Calibração hidrológica do modelo SWAT em bacia hidrográfica caracterizada pela expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar

Martins

Moraes

et al. 2020

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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A dificuldade na gestão de recursos hídricos aliada à dinâmica do uso e ocupação do solo em bacias hidrográficas agrícolas são fatores relevantes para a conservação da água e solo. A gestão de bacias hidrográficas, bem como o monitoramento de cenários de expansão agrícola e mudança no uso do solo, podem se beneficiar de ferramentas de modelagem hidrossedimentológica, como o SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Entretanto, para que os resultados obtidos sejam confiáveis, os modelos precisam ser calibrados. Objetivou-se, neste trabalho, calibrar e validar o modelo SWAT, para a variável vazão, tendo como base a bacia hidrográfica do Ribeirão do Pinhal, Limeira -São Paulo, que se caracteriza pela expansão da cana-de-açúcar sobre áreas citrícolas. Dados de vazão de um posto fluviométrico localizado no exutório da bacia foram utilizados para a calibração e validação, a partir de séries temporais diferentes. Utilizou-se o software QSWAT para a simulação hidrológica e o SWAT-CUP para a calibração e validação do modelo. O modelo foi calibrado e validado resultando nos seguintes índices estatísticos NSE=0,64; PBIAS=15,2 e RSR=0,60 para calibração e NSE=0,68 PBIAS=-2,8 e RSR=0,56 para a validação. O ajuste de parâmetros do SWAT (USLE_P, USLE_C, CN2) e do calendário de operações da cana-de-açúcar em acordo com a situação real da bacia foi necessário para a calibração do modelo. Os resultados indicam que o modelo SWAT subestima as vazões extremas, no entanto, dentro de faixa aceitável. O SWAT, após a calibração, pode ser utilizado na gestão de recursos hídricos na bacia do Ribeirão do Pinhal.Hydrological calibration of the SWAT model in a watershed characterized by the expansion of sugarcane cultivationA B S T R A C TThe difficulty in water resources management combined with the dynamics of land use and occupation in agricultural watersheds are relevant factors for water and soil conservation. River basin management, as well as monitoring scenarios of agricultural expansion and land-use change, can benefit from hydrossedimentological modeling tools such as the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). However, for the results to be reliable, the models must be calibrated. The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate the SWAT model for the flow variable, based on the Ribeirão do Pinhal watershed, Limeira-São Paulo, which is characterized by the expansion of sugarcane over citrus areas. Flow data from a fluviometric station located in the basin's outfall were used for calibration and validation from different time series. QSWAT software was used for hydrological simulation and SWAT-CUP for model calibration and validation. The model was calibrated and validated resulting in the following statistical indices NSE = 0.64; PBIAS = 15.2 and RSR = 0.60 for calibration and NSE = 0.68 PBIAS = -2.8 and RSR = 0.56 for validation. Adjustment of SWAT parameters (USLE_P, USLE_C, and CN2) and the sugarcane operation schedule according to the actual basin situation was necessary for model calibration. The results indicate that the SWAT model underestimates the extreme flow rates, however, within an acceptable range. After calibration, the SWAT can be used to manage water resources in the Ribeirão do Pinhal basin.Keywords: Hydrologic simulation; land use; flow rate.

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Section: Análise De Sensibilidade Calibração E Validação Do Modelounclassified

Calibração hidrológica do modelo SWAT em bacia hidrográfica caracterizada pela expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar

Martins

Moraes

et al. 2020

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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“…In large basins, the water resources management and planning are carried out monthly, and the observed hydrological data, which are then more readily available, are used for calibrating and validating hydrological models [55]. The first two years were used as a warm-up period to reduce the uncertainties regarding the initial conditions of the surface domain [60]. The period from January 2002 to December 2010 was used for calibration.…”

Section: Calibration and Validation Of The Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products for Hydrological Modeling in the Brazilian Cerrado Biome

Amorim

Viola

Junqueira

et al. 2020

Water

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This study investigates the applicability of Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) in streamflow simulations performed in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, which is one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots. Local data from ground observations were used as a reference for evaluating the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the streamflow in a subbasin of the Tocantins river basin. Statistical precision metrics showed that both SPPs presented a satisfactory performance for precipitation monitoring on a monthly scale, in which IMERG performed better than TMPA. The Nash–Sutcliff coefficient and Kling–Gupta efficiency obtained for both calibration and validation period were greater than 0.82 and 0.79, respectively, demonstrating that both SPPs were able to simulate the hydrological regime adequately. However, the bias indicated that the SPPs overestimated the observed streamflow. The r-factor and p-factor values showed that both TMPA and IMERG presented low uncertainty in streamflow simulations. SPPs offer a great alternative for monitoring the precipitation and hydrological studies in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, and presented better simulation results than rain gauges.

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“…Calibration of the SWATmf model was conducted using a two-step process [36]: (1) calibration of the surface domain using daily streamflow data at three gauging stations and pool elevation in the Fort Cobb reservoir, and (2) calibration of the groundwater domain using three continuous piezometric heads on a daily basis. In both steps, metrics as well as the three-dimensional groundwater level representation were used to assess the infiltration fluxes at the boundary condition between the two domains.…”

Section: Swatmf Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, short-term fluctuations (interannual) were not properly represented by the model. This was explained as the smoothing effect of recharge patterns occurring across the watershed that resulted from the spatial discretization of clustered, spatially disconnected HRUs derived from ArcSWAT [36]. HRUs are created based on unique combinations of soil, land use, and topography that can result in spatially disconnected areas clustered to a single SWAT process representation.…”

Section: Model Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Risks of Groundwater Extraction in an Agricultural Landscape under Different Climate Projections

Triana

Chu-Agor

Guzmán

et al. 2020

Water

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Groundwater resources worldwide are being depleted at alarming rates since 1960 to support agriculture, industry, and domestic water demand. Water harvesting and the implementation of reduced application or more efficient irrigation technologies were identified as two of the most efficient practices to mitigate the declining patterns on groundwater resources. However, prior to implementing these practices, understanding how groundwater interacts with surface water and responds to natural and anthropogenic stressors is crucial. Integrated modeling tools that are able to exchange fluxes in both domains are needed to assess how conservation practices will affect our water resources under different projected climate and land use scenarios. This study aimed to evaluate the most likely impacts of current land management practices under the most severe projections of future climate and quantify the potential mitigation effects of three conservation scenarios on the water resources of the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed (FCREW) in western Oklahoma. The semicoupled SWAT-MODFLOW (SWATmf) model was used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the FCREW to a 50% reduction in the irrigation depths and the transition of 50% and 75% of croplands to rangelands under 32 distinct climate projections. Results showed that future climate can drive a reduction in the streamflow (−18%) and an increase to the depth of the water table (99%–120%) in the western part of the FCREW by the end of the century. The Fort Cobb Reservoir was expected to reduce its release after the mid-2060s to maintain its current target level. All the scenarios, aimed at decreasing groundwater extractions or implementing conservation measures, signaled a full recovery response in the groundwater levels 7–10 years after the year the conservation practices were implemented. The 50% reduction in the irrigation depths was found to elicit faster hydrologic systemic responses than the two that implemented conservation measures, which contravene tradition and would imply cessation of agricultural activities. This study can enable stakeholders to formulate timely adaptation and mitigating strategies to adopt to land use changes.

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Beyond model metrics: The perils of calibrating hydrologic models

Cited by 38 publications

References 27 publications

Calibração hidrológica do modelo SWAT em bacia hidrográfica caracterizada pela expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar

Calibração hidrológica do modelo SWAT em bacia hidrográfica caracterizada pela expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar

Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products for Hydrological Modeling in the Brazilian Cerrado Biome

Evaluating the Risks of Groundwater Extraction in an Agricultural Landscape under Different Climate Projections

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