Beyond seasonal climate: statistical estimation of phenological responses to weather

Diez, Jeffrey M.; Ibáñez, Inés; Silander, John A.; Primack, Richard B.; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Kobori, Hiromi; Sen, Ananda; James, Timothy Y.

doi:10.1890/13-1533.1

Cited by 24 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…; Buckley & Kingsolver ; Diez et al . ). For many of these species, the timing and magnitude of weather events within a year can be just as important as the average annual conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Quantifying how short‐term environmental variation leads to long‐term demographic responses to climate change

Shriver

2015

Journal of Ecology

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Summary Climate change is expected to alter not only year‐to‐year variation in climate but also aspects of within‐year variation, such as the length of the intervals between rainfall events and the duration of heat waves. Yet we still have a poor understanding of how intra‐annual climate variability and individual weather events alter key vital rates (e.g. individual growth, reproduction and survival) that in part determine population dynamics. Traditionally, ecologists have accounted for this variability across long time periods by attempting to correlate annual vital rates with measures of within‐year variability (e.g. the coefficient of variation) to match the scale at which demographic data are collected. An alternative to this aggregate approach is to use within‐season yet still relatively infrequent censuses in a probabilistic framework to determine the most likely way that vital rates respond to shorter‐term variation in the environment, and how these short‐term changes cumulatively lead to the observed yearly vital rates. Here, I present an approach for inferring daily responses of vital rates to short‐term weather variability, and apply it to understand how five species of summer annual plants in the Chihuahuan Desert will respond to climate change. Vital rate models reveal that species differ in their responses to above‐ and below‐average conditions, but generally fall into two life histories: (i) species that have fast growth on favourable days, but also experience higher mortality on less favourable days, and (ii) species that have slower growth in the same conditions but lower mortality. Results show that the expected rainfall changes in the Chihuahuan Desert (more late, cool season rainfall and less frequent, more intense rainfall events) could reduce growth and increase mortality of all summer annual plants. Synthesis. My study shows that vital rates can change in response to short‐term variability even when the total amount of rainfall and average temperature, common covariates in demographic models, remain constant. Accounting for changes in short‐term environmental variation in climate change predictions will likely be important in systems with considerable environmental variation between censuses. The approach I present here can be widely applied to understand how short‐term variability and individual weather events will alter organism responses to climate change.

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“…; Buckley & Kingsolver ; Diez et al . ). For many of these species, the timing and magnitude of weather events within a year can be just as important as the average annual conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Quantifying how short‐term environmental variation leads to long‐term demographic responses to climate change

Shriver

2015

Journal of Ecology

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“…Additionally, the methods presented in this study do not accurately estimate the uncertainty around mean onset dates because the true date of onset is not known, and only a single date is considered for the observation, rather than the window of time within which the first observation may have occurred. Estimation of the uncertainty of these values for the purposes of predictive modeling may be more accurately calculated using Bayesian hierarchical modeling (e.g., Diez et al 2014). …”

Section: Considerations For Data Selection From Complex Phenological mentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the onset of spring from a complex phenology database: trade-offs across geographic scales

et al. 2015

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Phenology is an important indicator of ecological response to climate change. Yet, phenological responses are highly variable among species and biogeographic regions. Recent monitoring initiatives have generated large phenological datasets comprised of observations from both professionals and volunteers. Because the observation frequency is often variable, there is uncertainty associated with estimating the timing of phenological activity. "Status monitoring" is an approach that focuses on recording observations throughout the full development of life cycle stages rather than only first dates in order to quantify uncertainty in generating phenological metrics, such as onset dates or duration. However, methods for using status data and calculating phenological metrics are not standardized. To understand how data selection criteria affect onset estimates of springtime leaf-out, we used status-based monitoring data curated by the USA National Phenology Network for 11 deciduous tree species in the eastern USA between 2009 and 2013. We asked, (1) How are estimates of the date of leaf-out onset, at the site and regional levels, influenced by different data selection criteria and methods for calculating onset, and (2) at the regional level, how does the timing of leaf-out relate to springtime minimum temperatures across latitudes and species? Results indicate that, to answer research questions at site to landscape levels, data users may need to apply more restrictive data selection criteria to increase confidence in calculating phenological metrics. However, when answering questions at the regional level, such as when investigating spatiotemporal patterns across a latitudinal gradient, there is low risk of acquiring erroneous results by maximizing sample size when using status-derived phenological data.

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“…These recurrent biological events are controlled by genetic (Neeman 1993) and environmental factors (Diez et al 2014, Hakkinen et al 1998, Sainte-Marie et al 2014, as well as by community structure and competition . Phenology is used as an integrative measure of plant responses to environmental changes , Schwartz 2013.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparative study of four approaches to assess phenology of Populus in a short-rotation coppice culture

Vanbeveren¹,

Bloemen²,

Balzarolo³

et al. 2016

iForest

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We compared four approaches to assess phenology in a short-rotation coppice culture with 12 poplar (Populus) genotypes. The four approaches quantified phenology at different spatial scales and with different temporal resolutions: (i) visual observations of bud phenology; (ii) measurements of leaf area index; (iii) webcam images; and (iv) satellite images. For validation purposes we applied the four approaches during two years: the year preceding a coppice event and the year following the coppice event. The delayed spring greenup and the faster canopy development in the year after coppicing (as compared to the year before coppicing) were similarly quantified by the four approaches. The four approaches detected very similar seasonal changes in phenology, although they had different spatial scales and a different temporal resolution. The onset of autumn senescence after coppicing remained the same as in the year before coppicing according to the bud set observations, but it started earlier according to the webcam images, and later according to the MODIS images. In comparison to the year before coppicing, the growing season -in terms of leaf area duration -was shorter in the year after coppicing, while the leaf area index was higher.

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Beyond seasonal climate: statistical estimation of phenological responses to weather

Cited by 24 publications

References 54 publications

Quantifying how short‐term environmental variation leads to long‐term demographic responses to climate change

Quantifying how short‐term environmental variation leads to long‐term demographic responses to climate change

Estimating the onset of spring from a complex phenology database: trade-offs across geographic scales

A comparative study of four approaches to assess phenology of Populus in a short-rotation coppice culture

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