Beyond the austerity-driven hypothesis: Political economic theses on penality and the recent prison population decline

Abstract

In what might be called the ‘austerity-driven hypothesis’, a consistent strand of literature has sought to explain the prison downsizing witnessed in many jurisdictions of the global north over the past decade by referring to the financial crisis of the late 2000s to early 2010s and its effects in terms of public spending cuts. Since this economic phase is essentially over, whereas the (moderate) decarceration turn is still ongoing, there are good reasons to challenge this hypothesis. This article delves into the non-economic forces that are fostering a prison population decline that, 10 years on, is becoming the new ‘penal normal’. The article thereby aims to spark a dialogue not only with the scholarship exploring the prison downsizing but also with certain theoretical frameworks that have played a key role in examining the punitive turn era. Additionally, the article contributes to the conversation on the need to reframe materialist readings on penality in a ‘non-reductionist’ fashion. By revisiting heterodox theses and scrutinizing the impact of recent penal changes on traditional materialist accounts, the article joins the collective endeavour seeking to update political economic perspectives on punishment and the penal field.

Unlikely downsizers: The prison service's role in reversing mass incarceration in Kazakhstan

“…Austerity-driven political agendas produced incentives among political elites to find savings on criminal justice expenditure (Aviram, 2015;Gottschalk, 2015). Yet, austerity on its own cannot explain penal reductionism outside the United States where savings from prison downsizing are negligible (Brandariz, 2022). Even in the US, utilitarian economic calculations could only produce prisondownsizing policy outcomes given an emergent bipartisan 'value-based consensus' (Karstedt et al, 2019) that challenged retributive rhetoric around the treatment of offenders (Green, 2015;Dagan and Teles, 2016;Clear and Frost, 2014).…”

Early 21st century penal reform: A comparative analysis of four states' responses to the problems of mass incarceration

“…However, recent scholarship demonstrates that the relationship between economic downturns and penal policy and practice depend on national (or subnational) institutions and political context (e.g., Campbell & Schoenfeld, 2013; Cheliotis, 2022; Lacey & Soskice, 2015). This may be why in some European countries the economic crisis of 2008 corresponded to significant declines in incarceration while in others, such as Greece and Portugal, it seemingly led to increases in incarceration (Brandariz, 2022). Similarly, studies of US incarceration rates between the 1970s and 1990s found a positive correlation with unemployment rates (e.g., Greenberg & West, 2001), while analyses of state‐level incarceration rates in the United States post‐2000 find that unemployment is correlated with decreases in incarceration rates (Phelps & Pager, 2017), or find no significant relationship (Campbell, Vogel, & Williams, 2015).…”

“…Many reforms simply move carceral capacity around—devolving costs and operations to localities, private companies or communities (Aviram, 2015; Cate, 2023; Miller & Purifoye, 2016) Ultimately then, the impact of economic change depends on how it interacts with state institutions, politics, and legal processes to influence proximate decisions by those making and implementing penal policy. As Brandariz (2022, 352) writes, shifts in the economy, crime, politics and culture “enable the gradual consolidation of new discourses, rationales, policies, and even actors” that support penal moderation or punitiveness (see also Lacey et al, 2018).…”

Spiegare le variazioni della politica sociale e penale con il principio di less eligibility

“…Nella maggior parte dell'Europa occidentale, il tasso di incarcerazione è rimasto sotto i 100 prigionieri per 100.000 -sette volte meno che negli Stati Uniti. La tendenza globale negli anni 2010 è stata più probabilmente quella di un declino delle prigioni (Brandariz 2021). Né le teorie che attribuiscono al razzismo un ruolo esplicativo centrale possono spiegare perché gli Stati Uniti incarcerano i bianchi americani a un tasso probabilmente da 10 a 20 volte superiore a quello con cui i paesi dell'Europa occidentale incarcerano i residenti bianchi.…”