Beyond the Battlefield: Uncovering the Impact of Military Pollution on Human Mortality

Abstract

Greenhouse gas emissions from militaries across the globe constitute a major fraction of global anthropogenic emissions annually. In addition to negatively impacting the climate, military activity also produces a significant amount of air pollution, which impacts human health. In this study, we numerically estimate the amount of air pollution which originates from military activity at global scale. We estimate its health impact using an exposure response function, finding that 276,446 lives (95% confidence interval 206,839 - 329,510) could have been saved in 2019 in a scenario free of global military activity. This number far exceeds the number of casualties in that year caused by fighting between militaries (78,282) and is on a similar scale as the mortality caused from pollution generated by entire sectors, such as land traffic, and industry. Our results call for immediate efforts toward global demilitarization, or at a minimum, the greening of military technologies and operations. Systematic changes of this kind can potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives per year and could divert important funding toward the existential crises faced by humanity, such as climate change and future pandemics.