Beyond the low-carbon niche: Global tipping points in the rise of wind, solar, and electric vehicles to regime scale systems

Strauch, Yonatan

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2019.101364

Cited by 39 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The average capacity of LIB production plants has grown from 0.5 GWh in 2015 to about 7 GWh in 2020 (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2020). The increase in production capacity is due to commissioning of new production plants, upscaling of existing plants, maturing supply chains, and improvements in production technology (Strauch 2020). At the cell level, nickel, manganese, and cobalt (NMC)-based cathode chemistries represent a majority share of the EV storage capacity globally in the last decade (Tsiropoulos et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental life cycle implications of upscaling lithium-ion battery production

Chordia

Lundmark

Ellingsen

2021

Int J Life Cycle Assess

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Purpose Life cycle assessment (LCA) literature evaluating environmental burdens from lithium-ion battery (LIB) production facilities lacks an understanding of how environmental burdens have changed over time due to a transition to large-scale production. The purpose of this study is hence to examine the effect of upscaling LIB production using unique life cycle inventory data representative of large-scale production. A sub-goal of the study is to examine how changes in background datasets affect environmental impacts. Method We remodel an often-cited study on small-scale battery production by Ellingsen et al. (2014), representative of operations in 2010, and couple it to updated Ecoinvent background data. Additionally, we use new inventory data to model LIB cell production in a large-scale facility representative of the latest technology in LIB production. The cell manufactured in the small-scale facility is an NMC-1:1:1 (nickel-manganese-cobalt) pouch cell, whereas in the large-scale facility, the cell produced in an NMC-8:1:1 cylindrical cell. We model production in varying carbon intensity scenarios using recycled and exclusively primary materials as input options. We assess environmental pollution–related impacts using ReCiPe midpoint indicators and resource use impacts using the surplus ore method (ReCiPe) and the crustal scarcity indicator. Results and discussion Remodelling of the small-scale factory using updated background data showed a 34% increase in greenhouse gas emissions — linked to updated cobalt sulfate production data. Upscaling production reduced emissions by nearly 45% in the reference scenario (South Korean energy mix) due to a reduced energy demand in cell production. However, the emissions reduce by a further 55% if the energy is sourced from a low-carbon intensity source (Swedish energy mix), shifting almost all burden to upstream supply chain. Regional pollution impacts such as acidification and eutrophication show similar trends. Toxic emissions also reduce, but unlike other impacts, they were already occurring during mining and ore processing. Lastly, nickel, cobalt, and lithium use contribute considerably to resource impacts. From a long-term perspective, copper becomes important from a resource scarcity perspective. Conclusions Upscaling LIB production shifts environmental burdens to upstream material extraction and production, irrespective of the carbon intensity of the energy source. Thus, a key message for the industry and policy makers is that further reductions in the climate impacts from LIB production are possible, only when the upstream LIB supply chain uses renewable energy source. An additional message to LCA practitioners is to examine the effect of changing background systems when evaluating maturing technologies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental life cycle implications of upscaling lithium-ion battery production

Chordia

Lundmark

Ellingsen

2021

Int J Life Cycle Assess

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“…In discussions of future transport in the context of global decarbonisation, the role of electric vehicles (EVs) is often considered [67,68]. Some interviewees also considered the possibility that in the long term "ethanol will face big challenge from electric vehicles" (GVA).…”

Section: Ethanolmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strength in diversity? Past dynamics and future drivers affecting demand for sugar, ethanol, biogas and bioelectricity from Brazil's sugarcane sector

Hughes

Mutran

Tomei

et al. 2020

Biomass and Bioenergy

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Brazil's sugarcane sector is a significant source of employment, and operates at the intersection of energy, agriculture and land use. Its future development will be affected by the values, decisions and actions of key actors. Accordingly, we report on the results of qualitative semi-structured interviews with 19 participants with expertise in relation to Brazil's sugarcane sector. We used visual aids, and reflections on past events, to structure and contextualise discussions about the future prospects for the sector as a whole, and for four of its potential products -sugar, ethanol, electricity and biogas.Interviews revealed general expectations of continued growth in the sector, particularly for its energyrelated products. However, the possibility of future challenges and tensions is still evident. We suggest three inter-related areas for ongoing reflection. First, there may be value in balancing the desire for minimal intervention, technology neutral styles of policy, with the need for policy that is clear, longterm and impactful. In some cases, more targeted policies for particular actors or emergent technologies, may also be justified. Second, increased clarity on the broader objectives for the sector, including the relative prioritisation of economic, social and environmental objectives, may help industry to make the long term investments consistent with the kind of deep innovation for which there is potential. Third, it is worth reflecting on how the above issues in combination can be leveraged into a global leadership strategy, with consideration of the relative robustness of different leadership strategies within broader emerging global dynamics.

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“…Strauch proposed that there can be a positive feedback loop between policy and market for wind energy, photovoltaic (PV) solar panels and lithium-ion battery electric vehicles (Strauch, 2020). The drop in prices for producing these products makes it easier to adopt new policies which then favour an increased scale production and cost reduction.…”

Section: Conclusion and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Canadian emissions and unconventional oil production exceed the 2°C global warming scenario

Mignault¹

2021

Preprint

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Highlights Canada extracted more unconventional oil than its budget for the entire century. Canadian fossil fuel industry global emissions increased by 32% from 2011 to 2019. Global emissions of this industry represent 2.1 times entire national emissions. Annual national emissions exceed targets set by three models of the 2°C scenario. Policies to limit exports of fossil fuels and national emissions should be implemented.

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Beyond the low-carbon niche: Global tipping points in the rise of wind, solar, and electric vehicles to regime scale systems

Cited by 39 publications

References 35 publications

Environmental life cycle implications of upscaling lithium-ion battery production

Environmental life cycle implications of upscaling lithium-ion battery production

Strength in diversity? Past dynamics and future drivers affecting demand for sugar, ethanol, biogas and bioelectricity from Brazil's sugarcane sector

Canadian emissions and unconventional oil production exceed the 2°C global warming scenario

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