2012
DOI: 10.2308/atax-10152
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Bias in Quarterly Estimates of Annual Effective Tax Rates and Earnings Management

Abstract: We investigate whether quarterly annual effective tax rate (ETR) estimates are systematically biased in comparison to year-end actual ETRs. We find that estimated annual ETRs in the first, second, and third quarters are systematically higher than year-end ETRs. We then investigate whether firms' overstatement of quarterly ETRs creates slack that is used for earnings management. We find that quarterly ETR increases are more likely to be reversed in subsequent quarters when firms would have missed their analysts… Show more

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Cited by 47 publications
(34 citation statements)
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“…We include UTB_change, which is the difference between the UTB ending and beginning balances scaled by lagged market value of equity, and IntPenMagn, which (as described previously) is the absolute value of UTB interest and penalty expense scaled by pre-tax income. Consistent with the arguments in Comprix, Mills, and Schmidt (2012), we expect tax expense to be more difficult to forecast when there are larger levels of UTBs and when the penalties and interest associated with UTBs are larger. We also include ETR_STD (ETR_change), which is the standard deviation of the previous four years of effective tax rates (absolute value of the prior year change in effective tax rates) as determined by the implied ETR based on actual pre-tax income and net income reported in I/B/E/S, and the absolute value of the difference between the firm's prior year GAAP ETR and 35 percent (absPermDiff ).…”
Section: Implications For Financial Statement Userssupporting
confidence: 60%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…We include UTB_change, which is the difference between the UTB ending and beginning balances scaled by lagged market value of equity, and IntPenMagn, which (as described previously) is the absolute value of UTB interest and penalty expense scaled by pre-tax income. Consistent with the arguments in Comprix, Mills, and Schmidt (2012), we expect tax expense to be more difficult to forecast when there are larger levels of UTBs and when the penalties and interest associated with UTBs are larger. We also include ETR_STD (ETR_change), which is the standard deviation of the previous four years of effective tax rates (absolute value of the prior year change in effective tax rates) as determined by the implied ETR based on actual pre-tax income and net income reported in I/B/E/S, and the absolute value of the difference between the firm's prior year GAAP ETR and 35 percent (absPermDiff ).…”
Section: Implications For Financial Statement Userssupporting
confidence: 60%
“…We also include ETR_STD (ETR_change), which is the standard deviation of the previous four years of effective tax rates (absolute value of the prior year change in effective tax rates) as determined by the implied ETR based on actual pre-tax income and net income reported in I/B/E/S, and the absolute value of the difference between the firm's prior year GAAP ETR and 35 percent (absPermDiff ). We expect tax expense to be more difficult to forecast when ETRs are less stable over time, and when a firm has permanent differences (Comprix et al 2012;Dhaliwal et al 2004). …”
Section: Implications For Financial Statement Usersmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Identification of expected tax avoidance is difficult because quarterly estimates of annual effective tax rates disclosed in firms' 10-Q's contain upward bias (Comprix, Mills and Schmidt 2011) and sophisticated users of financial statements have difficulty interpreting effective tax rate changes (Bauman and Shaw 2005). In addition, the variability of annual tax rates due to refunds, settlements and other tax irregularities limits the use of an annual rate as an expectation for a future year's rate.…”
Section: Relative Valuation Of Tax Avoidancementioning
confidence: 99%
“…Conversely, the Compustat Unrestated U.S. Quarterly file identifies the net income effect for each quarter of each fiscal year for each firm. Studies that use the Compustat Unrestated Quarterly file to obtain originally released accounting data include Bronson et al (2011), Price et al (2011), andComprix et al (2012), among others.…”
Section: Research Design and Descriptive Statistics Samplementioning
confidence: 99%