Biased Probability Judgment: Evidence of Incidence and Relationship to Economic Outcomes from a Representative Sample

Dohmen, Thomas; Falk, Armin; Huffman, David; Marklein, Felix; Sunde, Uwe

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1405938

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 14 publications

(13 reference statements)

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“…This paper contributes to three strands of literatures. First, our paper contributes to a literature in experimental psychology on how people gather evidence to test hypotheses (Skov and Sherman 1986, Klayman and Ha 1987, Baron et al 1988, Slowiaczek et al 1992 Second, our paper is related to a literature in experimental economics studying learning from new information and documenting deviations from Bayesian inference (Tversky and Kahneman 1971, Grether 1980, Viscusi and O'Connor 1984, Hoffrage et al 2000, Charness and Levin 2005, Dohmen et al 2009. Third and more directly, our paper contributes to a recent literature in experimental economics on the choice over sources of information structures with instrumental value (Ambuehl and Li 2018, Duffy et al 2017, 2018.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Audi Alteram Partem: An Experiment on Selective Exposure to Information

Montanari,

Nunnari

2023

SSRN Journal

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Audi Alteram Partem: An Experiment on Selective Exposure to Information

Montanari,

Nunnari

2023

SSRN Journal

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Inequality and Happiness: When Perceived Social Mobility and Economic Reality Do Not Match

et al. 2010

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We argue that perceived fairness of the income generation process affects the association between income inequality and subjective well-being, and that there are systematic differences in this regard between countries that are characterized by a high or, respectively, low level of actual fairness. Using a simple model of individual labor market participation under uncertainty, we predict that high levels of perceived fairness cause higher levels of individual welfare, and lower support for income redistribution. Income inequality is predicted to have a more favorable impact on subjective wellbeing for individuals with high fairness perceptions. This relationship is predicted to be stronger in societies that are characterized by low actual fairness. Using data on subjective well-being and a broad set of fairness measures from a pseudo micro-panel from the WVS over the 1990-2008 period, we find strong support for the negative (positive) association between fairness perceptions and the demand for more equal incomes (subjective well-being). We also find strong empirical support for the predicted differences in individual tolerance for income inequality, and the predicted influence of actual fairness.

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Falk

Zimmermann

2011

SSRN Journal

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Biased Probability Judgment: Evidence of Incidence and Relationship to Economic Outcomes from a Representative Sample

Cited by 5 publications

References 14 publications

Audi Alteram Partem: An Experiment on Selective Exposure to Information

Audi Alteram Partem: An Experiment on Selective Exposure to Information

Inequality and Happiness: When Perceived Social Mobility and Economic Reality Do Not Match

Preferences for Consistency

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