Bidirectional Causality between Spreading COVID-19 and Individual Mobilisation with Consumption Motives across Prefectural Borders in Japan

Kawano, Yasuhiro; Matsumoto, Rei; Motomura, Eishi; Shiroyama, Takashi; Okada, Motohiro

doi:10.3390/ijerph19159070

Cited by 6 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Alcohol consumption tended to elicit behavior that promotes lower compliance to COVID-19 preventive measures ( 74 ). Indeed, individual mobilizations with expenditures to pubs across the prefectural borders played important roles in expanding the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan ( 76 ). Furthermore, a recent scoping review study revealed that rural were associated with an increased likelihood of hazardous alcohol use or alcohol-related harm compared to urban ( 73 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the changing relationship between personal consumption and suicide mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, using governmental and personal consumption transaction databases

Matsumoto

Kawano²,

Motomura³

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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During the early stages of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, suicides did not increase in most countries/regions. Japan, however, was an exception to this, reporting increased numbers of female suicides with no changes in male suicide. To explore the trends of increasing suicides, the fluctuations of personal consumption (as an indicator of lifestyle) and standardized suicide death rate (SDR) disaggregated by age, sex, and prefecture, were determined using a linear mixed-effect model. Additionally, fixed effects of personal consumption on SDR during the pandemic were also analyzed using hierarchical linear regression models with robust standard errors. During the first wave of the pandemic, SDR for both sexes decreased slightly but increased during the second half of 2020. SDR of females younger than 70 years old and males younger than 40 years old continued to increase throughout 2021, whereas SDR for other ages of both sexes did not increase. Personal consumption expenditures on out-of-home recreations (travel agencies, pubs, and hotels) and internet/mobile communication expenses decreased, but expenditures on home-based recreations (contents distribution) increased during the pandemic. Increased expenditures on internet/mobile communication were related to increasing SDR of both sexes. Increasing expenditures on content distributions were related to increasing females' SDR without affecting that of males. Decreasing expenditures on pubs were related to increasing SDR of both sexes in the non-metropolitan region. These findings suggest that transformed individual lifestyles, extended time at home with a decreased outing for contact with others, contributed to the progression of isolation as a risk of suicide. Unexpectedly, increasing compensatory contact with others using internet/mobile communication enhanced isolation resulting in increased suicide risk.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the changing relationship between personal consumption and suicide mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, using governmental and personal consumption transaction databases

Matsumoto

Kawano²,

Motomura³

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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“…25 , 26 SSNPA provides annual suicide numbers in Japan disaggregated by various factors, including sex (male and female), school (middle school, high school, and university), and suicidal motives (7 categories: family, health, economic, employment, romance, school related, and other motives, with 52 subcategories) (eTables 1, 2, and 3 in Supplement 1 ). 8 , 16 , 18 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 The detailed methods of the investigation of suicidal motives are explained in the eAppendix in Supplement 1 . Annual student populations in middle school, high school, and university from 2007 to 2022 (denominator for SMRP derivation) were obtained from the School Basic Survey, a government database of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suicidal Mortality and Motives Among Middle-School, High-School, and University Students

Okada,

Matsumoto,

Shiroyama

et al. 2023

JAMA Netw Open

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ImportanceThe suicide mortality rate per 100 000 population (SMRP) consistently decreased before the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Japan and then unexpectedly increased during the pandemic. However, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood.ObjectiveTo identify trends in and factors associated with suicidal mortality and motives among students in Japan from 2007 to 2022.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsIn this cross-sectional study, data on SMRPs among Japanese middle-school, high-school, and university students were obtained from the government suicide database Suicide Statistics of the National Police Agency.Main Outcomes and MeasuresAge-dependent and temporal fluctuations in annual SMRPs, disaggregated by suicidal motive (7 categories and 52 subcategories), sex, and school, were analyzed using linear mixed-effect and joinpoint regression models, respectively.ResultsTotal suicide numbers from 2007 to 2022 were as follows: 760 male middle-school students, 635 female middle-school students, 2376 male high-school students, 1566 female high-school students, 5179 male university students, and 1880 female university students. The mean (SD) student populations from 2007 to 2022 were as follows: 1 752 737 (81 334) male middle-school students, 1 675 572 (78 824) female middle-school students, 1 648 274 (67 520) male high-school students, 1 614 828 (60 032) female high-school students, 1 652 689 (32 724) male university students, and 1 229 142 (57 484) female university students. Among male students, the leading motives were school-related factors (underachievement and worrying about the future), followed by family-related and health-related motives. Among female students, school-related and family-related motives decreased, but health-related motives showed an age-dependent increase. The SMRPs of middle-school male students and female students were almost equal (mean [SD], 2.7 [1.0] vs 2.4 [1.4]), but the age-dependent increase in SMRPs among male students was pronounced (mean [SD], high-school vs university male students, 9.1 [2.4] vs 19.6 [3.0]; high-school vs university female students, 6.1 [2.4] vs 9.6 [1.8]). However, the incidence of suicide among high-school students associated with health-related motives was greater in female students. The majority of suicides associated with major impactable suicidal motives (school-related, health-related, and family-related motives) began increasing before the pandemic. Changes in SMRP associated with interpersonal relationships, such as conflict with classmates or parents, were not significant, but the rates increased greatly during the pandemic.Conclusions and RelevanceSchool-related, health-related, and family-related problems were major motives, whereas the impacts of health-related and family-related motives increased and decreased with age, respectively. Notably, most SMRPs associated with major impactable motives (underachievement, conflict with a parent or classmate, and mental illnesses) had already begun increasing in the late 2010s, indicating that recent increasing SMRPs among school-aged individuals were associated with pandemic-related factors and other factors affecting this generation before the pandemic. It may be inappropriate to uniformly apply research findings based on school-aged individuals to school-based suicide prevention programs for students in middle school, high school, and university.

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“…However, CSMRs disaggregated by age in Japan have increased in an age‐dependent manner in the <60 years population. 7 , 8 , 12 , 28 , 34 , 35 Therefore, when suicide risk is age‐dependent and the age distribution in regions changes over time, age distribution becomes an important demographic variable for suicide statistics. In Japan, which has a decreasing birth rate and aging population (predominant in rural areas), even if CSMRs for each generation remain stable, national‐level CSMRs may increase due to aging.…”

Section: Basis Of Statistical Measures For Suicide Mortality Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 65 VAR is usually summarized by structural analyses using Granger causality, 66 impulse responses, and forecast error variance decompositions. 12 , 13 , 14 , 35 Granger causality is statistical hypothesis test for determining whether time‐series analysis is effective in forecasting the result. 66 The impulse response explains the evolution of the model's variables in reaction to a shock in one or more variables.…”

Section: Causality Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suicide mortality rates in Japan before and beyond the COVID‐19 pandemic era

Okada,

Matsumoto,

Motomura

2024

PCN Reports

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Statistical analyses from Japan reported increasing suicides in 2020, first in the world, proving the severity of the public health crisis during the COVID‐19 pandemic; however, so far, international suicides have not been shown to be objectively increasing at population level. Followed studies reported the existence of a substantial heterogeneity of suicides among subgroups and time‐lag impacts. Against public health crisis in Japan, policymakers, psychiatrists and public health personnel should prioritize improving suicide prevention programs following evidence‐based policymaking. Understanding how/what factors relate to the COVID‐19 pandemic and what other factors have shaped the increasing suicide numbers since 2020 through objectively well‐controlled/fine‐grained analyses of high‐quality longitudinal/cross‐sectional data at the individual, regional, and national levels is important for identifying the reasons for the recent trend. For this purpose, this study examined suicide statistics, statistical analysis methods, and their interpretations. Recent analyses suggest an increased suicide risk among females <50 years and males <30 years in 2020–2022. Notably, time‐series analyses revealed that adolescent suicides began increasing before the pandemic, while working‐age female suicides sharply increased synchronously with the pandemic outbreak. Causality analyses suggest that social issues facing Japan and recent global psychosocial and socioeconomic transformations are risk factors for suicide in high‐risk groups. Finally, this report demonstrates the importance of providing appropriate support based on an objective understanding of individuals who are at risk for suicide, without being bound by traditional established knowledges.

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Bidirectional Causality between Spreading COVID-19 and Individual Mobilisation with Consumption Motives across Prefectural Borders in Japan

Cited by 6 publications

References 38 publications

Analyzing the changing relationship between personal consumption and suicide mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, using governmental and personal consumption transaction databases

Analyzing the changing relationship between personal consumption and suicide mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, using governmental and personal consumption transaction databases

Suicidal Mortality and Motives Among Middle-School, High-School, and University Students

Suicide mortality rates in Japan before and beyond the COVID‐19 pandemic era

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