Bioclimatic Modelling Identifies Suitable Habitat for the Establishment of the Invasive European Paper Wasp (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) across the Southern Hemisphere

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are tools used by ecologists to help predict the spread of invasive species. Information provided by these models can help direct conservation and biosecurity efforts by highlighting areas likely to contain species of interest. In this study, two models were created to investigate the potential range expansion of Polistes dominula Christ (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the southern hemisphere. This palearctic species has spread to invade North and South America, South Africa, Australia, and more recently New Zealand. Using the BIOCLIM and MAXENT modelling methods, regions that were suitable for P. dominula were identified based on climate data across four regions in the southern hemisphere. In South America areas of central Chile, eastern Argentina, parts of Uruguay, and southern Brazil were identified as climatically suitable for the establishment of P. dominula. Similarly, southern parts of South Africa and Australia were identified by the model to be suitable as well as much of the North Island and east of the South Island of New Zealand. Based on outputs from both models, significant range expansion by P. dominula is possible across its more southern invaded ranges.

The nesting ecology, habitat preference, abundance and impacts of Polistes dominula in New Zealand

“…The current confirmed distribution of P. dominula includes the upper part of the South Island of New Zealand, with reports of the distribution of this wasp spreading as far South as Alexandra (Howse et al, 2020). The only reported North Island sightings are from Auckland, although this is yet to be confirmed.…”

“…As Nelson has a port and is the area where P. dominula is believed to have been the longest, in addition to the preference of this wasp to nest on anthropogenic structures, P. dominula was likely introduced to New Zealand via a shipping container. Predictive modelling has found the vast majority of human-habited areas of New Zealand to be climatically suitable for this wasp to establish (Howse et al, 2020), so the spread of this species across New Zealand is likely to occur in the near future. The range expansion of this wasp is of concern for invertebrate species across the country, particularly moths and butterflies.…”

“…The only sightings of P. dominula in the North Island have been in Auckland. Temperature and precipitation in these areas appears to be favourable for P. dominula (Howse et al, 2020). To determine whether P. dominula and P. chinensis had a nesting preference, habitat was categorized into three types: suburban, coastal and forest (Fig.…”

A Bioclimate-Based Maximum Entropy Model for Comperiella calauanica Barrion, Almarinez and Amalin (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) in the Philippines

“…Recently, distribution modeling has been used to predict areas of high risk brought about by human infrastructures [10], as well as in the identification of potential niche areas for habitation of species that may have an ecological service of medical importance to humans [11]. Potential distributions of invasive species can also be predicted with the aid of species distribution models (SDMs) [12,13]. Among the popular algorithms used in modeling species distributions is the maximum entropy (Maxent) approach, which requires presence-only data as an indication of the species' occurrence.…”

“…Particular species of insects have their own characteristic tolerance to climatic factors, and changes in such factors can lead to potential changes in distribution [17]. In view of this, Maxent modeling has been used to predict the current and potential distributions of invasive species [18], as well as those of a variety of forest and agricultural insect pests which include: the large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis L., and the horse-chestnut leaf miner, Cameraria ohridella Deschka and Dimič [19], and six tephritid fruit flies [20] in Europe; three species of tephritid flies under genus Dacus Fabricius [21] and the European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana Denis and Schiffermüller, in China [22]; the ricaniid planthopper, Ricania shantungensis Chou and Lu in Korea [23,24]; the cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley, in India [25] and worldwide [26]; and the invasive European paper wasp, Polistes dominula Christ in the southern hemisphere [13].…”