Bioclimatic zonation and potential distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in South Kivu Province, DR Congo

Abstract

Background The fall Armyworm (FAW) Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith), is currently a devastating pest throughout the world due to its dispersal capacity and voracious feeding behaviour on several crops. A MaxEnt species distributions model (SDM) was developed based on collected FAW occurrence and environmental data’s. Bioclimatic zones were identified and the potential distribution of FAW in South Kivu, eastern DR Congo, was predicted. Results Mean annual temperature (bio1), annual rainfall (bio12), temperature seasonality (bio4) and longest dry season duration (llds) mainly affected the FAW potential distribution. The average area under the curve value of the model was 0.827 demonstrating the model efficient accuracy. According to Jackknife test of variable importance, the annual rainfall was found to correspond to the highest gain when used in isolation. FAWs’ suitable areas where this pest is likely to be present in South Kivu province are divided into two corridors. The Eastern corridor covering the Eastern areas of Kalehe, Kabare, Walungu, Uvira and Fizi territories and the Western corridor covering the Western areas of Kalehe, Kabare, Walungu and Mwenga. Conclusions This research provides important information on the distribution of FAW and bioclimatic zones in South Kivu. Given the rapid spread of the insect and the climatic variability observed in the region that favor its development and dispersal, it would be planned in the future to develop a monitoring system and effective management strategies to limit it spread and crop damage.

The distribution of covert microbial natural enemies of a globally invasive crop pest, fall armyworm, in Africa: Enemy release and spillover events

“…Considering that elevation, rainfall and temperature made up PC1 that was significantly associated with SfMNPV prevalence, these patterns would suggest that viral prevalence was greatest in lower elevations and warmer temperatures, which are also areas usually associated with less rainfall. However, it is important to consider that behavioural factors relating to these variables could also influence disease prevalence, such as reduced population movements if there is year‐round survival in warmer locations (Cokola et al, 2020). These findings highlight the importance of considering a wide‐range of local factors when investigating the prevalence of natural enemies in invasive species, as these effects of weather and elevation may have led to differences in disease prevalence in fall armyworm populations geographically close together.…”

First report of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on Onion (Allium cepa L.) in South Kivu, Eastern DR Congo

“…Recent studies on the distribution of S. frugiperda in South Kivu have demonstrated rainfall as a key factor in the abundance and occurrence of this pest (Cokola et al, 2020). According to Early et al (2018) and Cokola (2019), rains cause significant larval mortality within the leaves of maize.…”

Distribution of <i>Spodoptera litura</i> (F.) in Uttarakhand

“…In settings of Maxent software "Random seed" was selected and 10 replicate models were run (Wang et al, 2020). In this study the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curve or AUC (Area Under ROC Curve) was used evaluate model's performance (Cokola et al, 2020). The theoretical values of AUC ranges from 0.5-1 and is an effective threshold-independent measure of model's ability to predict habitat suitability (Wang et al, 2018).…”