Biodiversity crisis or sixth mass extinction?

Rull, Valentı́

doi:10.31233/osf.io/by5u6

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…For example, using the periodicity of 63 Myr for Solar System dynamics, Gillman & Erenler (2017) anticipated that the next extinction event should occur in 1–2 Myr. Curiously, this coincides with current extrapolations of extinction rates, although the causal mechanisms are radically different, being based on anthropogenic extinctions (Rull, 2022b). Regarding non‐astronomical causes, Prokoph et al (2013) used the periodicity of mantle plume releases (62–65 Myr) to predict a still unidentified extinction event 440–450 Myr ago.…”

Section: Phanerozoic Cycles Of Extinctionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Inductive prediction in biology

Rull

2022

EMBO Reports

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Section: Phanerozoic Cycles Of Extinctionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Inductive prediction in biology

Rull

2022

EMBO Reports

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“…It is difficult to envisage the emergence of another evolutionary rescuer similar to Rhizophora that prevented the extinction of Pelliciera and promoted its expansion thus initiating an eventual third cycle. Humans could be able to do this through conservation/restoration actions, but we should seriously ask ourselves if we have the right to artificially preserving a taxon that is naturally headed to extinction (Rull, 2022b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Taxon cycles in Neotropical mangroves

Rull

2022

Preprint

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The concept of taxon cycle involves successive range expansions and contractions over time through which a species can maintain indefinitely its core distribution. Otherwise, it becomes extinct. A typical taxon cycle can be subdivided into four stages: (I) expansion, (II) population differentiation, (III) local extinction and incipient speciation (eventually initiating a new cycle), and (IV) relictualization and extinction. Taxon cycles have been defined mostly for tropical island faunas. Examples from continental areas are scare and similar case studies for plants remain unknown. Most taxon cycles have been identified on the basis of phylogenetic and phylogeographic studies, straightforward empirical evidence of expansion and contraction phases based on the fossil record are still lacking. Here empirical fossil evidence is provided for recurrent Eocene to present expansion and contraction cycles in a mangrove taxon (Pelliciera), after a Neotropical-wide study of the available pollen records (~80 sites). This recurrent behavior is compatible with the concept of taxon cycle from biogeographical, chronological and ecological perspectives. Evolutionary predictions are more difficult to evaluate with the available evidence. The biotic (dispersal, competition, facilitation, niche segregation) and abiotic (environmental shifts) drivers potentially involved in the initiation and maintenance of the Pelliciera expansion/contraction cycles are analyzed, and the ecological and evolutionary implications for Neotropical mangroves are discussed. Two main expansion/contraction Pelliciera cycles have been identified, the first during the Eocene and the second between the Oligocene and the present. It is suggested that the Eocene cycle would have led to the extinction of Pelliciera but the Late-Eocene arrival of a gerenalist long-distance disperser that dominates the extant Neotropical mangroves (Rhizophora) provided the conditions for its survival and further Oligo-Miocene expansion. After a drastic Mio-Pliocene contraction, Pelliciera is restricted today to a small relict patch similar, in extension and location, to its original Eocene range. Whether this could be a trend toward extinction is considered, under the predictions of the taxon cycle theory. The recurrent expansion and contraction cycles identified for Pelliciera from the Eocene to the present have strong potential for being the first empirically and unequivocally documented taxon cycles, and likely the only taxon cycles documented to date for plants.

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Biodiversity crisis or sixth mass extinction?

Abstract: Does the current anthropogenic biodiversity crisis really qualify as a mass extinction?

Cited by 2 publications

References 7 publications

Inductive prediction in biology

Inductive prediction in biology

Taxon cycles in Neotropical mangroves

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