Biofuels in the energy transition beyond peak oil.A macroscopic study of energy demand in the Stockholm transport system 2030

Robèrt, Markus; Hultén, Per; Frostell, Björn

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2007.05.006

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…In essence, the future transport system faces a complex situation with many uncertain factors: Peak oil: The global depletion of fossil fuels in combination with the rapid economic growth in the developing world implies that the world is now facing a peak oil era with stricter requirements on technological efficiency and economic use of energy in all sectors of society (Aleklett, 2006;Robèrt et al, 2007). Climate change: Road traffic accounts for almost 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden (Ministry of Sustainable Development, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model for Climate Target–Oriented Planning and Monitoring of Corporate Travel

Robèrt¹

2009

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

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The objectives of this study are to (a) demonstrate the importance and motivation for large private companies taking action against climate change and (b) develop a backcasting-oriented framework for comprehensive and manageable corporate travel policies. The backcasting framework consists of four parts: (1) target description at a conceptual level; (2) mapping of the current status of the company regarding staff travel patterns and preferences, individual and collective emissions, and costs against the targets described; (3) a policy-oriented transformation of the backcasting target; and (4) alternative sets of company policies and strategies that would allow targets to be achieved. A detailed cost-benefit analysis is supplemented by statistical and econometric models that test employee acceptance of the different policy alternatives.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model for Climate Target–Oriented Planning and Monitoring of Corporate Travel

Robèrt¹

2009

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

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“…As for future policy implementation in transportation, biomass fuel, efficient power communication methods and coal fuel with low carbon technology are all approaches to tackle these energy related issues [12]. Robert et al [13] have stressed the pivotal impact of supply and demand policy on goal-achievement for energy savings in transportation. However, it is another story when given petroleum products consumption itself.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry

Chai

Wang

et al. 2012

Energies

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Abstract:In this paper, petroleum product (mainly petrol and diesel) consumption in the transportation sector of China is analyzed. This was based on the Bayesian linear regression theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC), establishing a demand-forecast model of petrol and diesel consumption introduced into the analytical framework with explanatory variables of urbanization level, per capita GDP, turnover of passengers (freight) in aggregate (TPA, TFA), and civilian vehicle number (CVN) and explained variables of petrol and diesel consumption. Furthermore, we forecast the future consumer demand for oil products during "The 12th Five Year Plan" (2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) based on the historical data covering from 1985 to 2009, finding that urbanization is the most sensitive factor, with a strong marginal effect on petrol and diesel consumption in this sector. From the viewpoint of prediction interval value, urbanization expresses the lower limit of the predicted results, and CVN the upper limit of the predicted results. Predicted value from other independent variables is in the range of predicted values which display a validation range and reference standard being much more credible for policy makers. Finally, a comparison between the predicted results from autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) and others is made to assess our task. OPEN ACCESSEnergies 2012, 5 578

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“…Scenario-based research suggests that biofuels and plug-in electric vehicles could meet future transport demand in whole countries and in urban areas (Lindfeldt et al, 2010;Robèrt et al, 2007;Turton, 2006). Some studies also acknowledge the need for behavioural change and reduced transport demand as important factors in addition to technological improvements (Åkerman and Höjer, 2006;Hickman and Banister, 2007;Robèrt and Jonsson, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lindfeldt et al (2010) present strategies for renewable road transport in Sweden 2025, concluding that a mix of demand reduction and technical improvements could lead to a road transport system without fossil fuels. Robèrt et al (2007) investigate the possibility of relying solely on biofuels in road transport in Stockholm County in 2030. They conclude that such a future would be possible, but also point out the importance of demand reduction (Robèrt et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Robèrt et al (2007) investigate the possibility of relying solely on biofuels in road transport in Stockholm County in 2030. They conclude that such a future would be possible, but also point out the importance of demand reduction (Robèrt et al, 2007). The importance of a combination of technical progress and demand reduction is confirmed by backcasting studies in many other developed countries and regions, for instance California, Japan and the UK (Ashina et al, 2012;Hickman and Banister, 2007;Yang et al;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bridging the implementation gap: Combining backcasting and policy analysis to study renewable energy in urban road transport

et al. 2015

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This paper combines backcasting and policy analysis to identify the opportunities for and barriers to the increased use of renewable energy and energy-efficient vehicles in an urban road transport system, namely, that of Stockholm, Sweden, in 2030. The combination of methods could bridge the implementation gap between scenario-based research and actual policy implementation and thus increase the chances of research being implemented in practice. In the case study, backcasting identifies a need for diverse fuels and vehicles and for immediate policy action. However, analysis of policy integration demonstrates that such action is unlikely given current policy structures. The fundamental lack of integration between energy and transport policy obstructs measures to increase the use of renewable fuels and more energy-efficient vehicles, which in turn obstructs the reduction of CO2 emissions from transport. The combination of backcasting and policy analysis is demonstrated to improve our understanding of the prerequisites for transitioning to a system based on renewable energy, and could thus be useful in further research.

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Biofuels in the energy transition beyond peak oil.A macroscopic study of energy demand in the Stockholm transport system 2030

Cited by 19 publications

References 36 publications

A Model for Climate Target–Oriented Planning and Monitoring of Corporate Travel

A Model for Climate Target–Oriented Planning and Monitoring of Corporate Travel

Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry

Bridging the implementation gap: Combining backcasting and policy analysis to study renewable energy in urban road transport

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