Biophysical models and meta-modelling to reduce the basis risk in index-based insurance: A case study on winter cereals in Italy

Tartarini, Sofia; Vesely, Fosco M.; Movedi, Ermes; Radegonda, Luca; Pietrasanta, Andrea; Recchi, Gianluca; Confalonieri, Roberto

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108320

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Tartarini et al analysed the risk of agricultural insurance and developed a new framework through metamodelling to derive an index characterised by low insurance-based risk. In addition, Tartarini et al have quantifed insurance risk and conducted empirical research on frost and dry heat damage to barley and soft and hard wheat in two regions of Italy to verify the evaluation index's reliability [24]. Fernandes-Hugo amd Ferreira-Fernando measured health insurance risk assessment using cognitive mapping and multicriteria decision analysis and combined cognitive mapping and the measurement of attractiveness to construct a unique nonparametric decision support system for the risk analysis of individual private health insurance [25].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on a Model for an Empirical Analysis of Inherent Defect Insurance Based on Ruin Theory

Yan,

Chen,

Wang

et al. 2023

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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The system of inherent defect insurance is an important measure to serve the real economy through financial means and improve the quality of construction projects, which is the future development direction of China’s construction industry. However, the related research is not perfect due to the short implementation of the insurance. This could bring risks to the promotion of insurance for companies. Insurance ruin theory is an important method in risk management theory, so adopting it to manage the risk inherent defect insurance from the perspective of insurance companies is vital. The research starts with the classic insurance ruin theory and determines the coefficient of premium collection from the perspective of claim settlement distribution expectations. Furthermore, the approximate distribution of claim settlement is deduced, and a comprehensive risk assessment model is constructed. Finally, based on the data of insurance actuarial practice in Shanghai, both the ruin probability of inherent defect insurance in each insuring term and its average required initial reserve are calculated, which provides the analyses on the risks and main subitems of inherent defect insurance as well as relevant suggestions. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is used to further analyse the risk of different insurance stages of IDI, and the relevant measures are proposed. The research can provide theoretical assistances for insurance companies to carry out effective risk management and provide model tools to make scientific decisions.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on a Model for an Empirical Analysis of Inherent Defect Insurance Based on Ruin Theory

Yan,

Chen,

Wang

et al. 2023

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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“…In that situation, a comprehensive market analysis may propose entering through an aggregator (for example, agricultural processors, input suppliers, FSPs, farmers' groups). Aggregators are critical to lowering transactions expenses and engaging more customers (Tartarini et al, 2021). In this framework, index insurance policies might be created to protect aggregator investments (through meso-level solutions) Meso-level actors can develop innovative linkages along the supply chain (e.g.…”

Section: Role Of Weather-based Index Insurance In Support Of Agricult...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although there is no one method to describe the many uses of weather-based index insurance in the region, the various techniques can be roughly classified as macro-level, micro-level, and mesolevel weather insurance (Tartarini, 2021). Individual farm insurance is handled at the micro-level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather Based Index Insurance and Its Role in Agricultural Production

Kajwang¹

2022

IJA

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Purpose: Insurance not only is a shock absorber for farmers and other actors in the agricultural value chain, but it also enables access to credit and hence is an integral part of financial inclusion, and it enables/protects investments in better inputs and technologies which increase productivity. The different forms of insurance also reduce the government's budget exposure to agricultural risks. Crop insurance could incentivize farmers to increase their input use but indemnity-based crop insurance programs are plagued by market failures. The purpose of this research work was to examine weather-based index insurance and its role in agricultural production. This study highlights the key opportunities for weather-based index products and bring further clarity to how the use of weather-based index insurance can help to transform agriculture production. Methodology: Relevant book references and journal articles for the study were identified using Google Scholar. The inclusion criteria entailed papers that were not over five years old. Findings: This study found that the uptake of weather-based index insurance is positively and significantly associated with the use of chemical fertilizer and improved seeds, and also with crop yield. The study concludes that upscaling of weather-based index insurance programs may help to spur agricultural development in agricultural production. Recommendations: The study recommends that weather-based index insurance be linked to an existing development program or other market opportunities to provide added value to the client. As a stand-alone product, weather-based index insurance may be seen as an unnecessary cost and have little demand from farmers who face a variety of risks in addition to weather risks. The study also recommends partnership between weather-based index insurance programs and complementary agricultural development or risk management programs. NGOs in particular could play an important and independent role in the extension of information to farmers, possibly in conjunction with official extension services.

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“…Those statistical emulators were initially developed with "entire scenarios" (simultaneous changes in climate factors) simulation during historical or future periods. Emulators have been developed for process-based crop models, like APSIM (Shahhosseini et al, 2019), GEPIC (Folberth et al, 2019), GWG (Xu et al, 2021), GAZE (Raimondo et al, 2021), and WOFOST (Tartarini et al, 2021), and used to estimate historical crop yield. As the emulator trained by historical simulation could not project the crop yield in the future, multiple crop model ensemble simulation in future climate scenarios were used to calibrate emulators (Blanc, 2017(Blanc, , 2020Blanc and Sultan, 2015;Mistry et al, 2017;Ostberg et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO₂, temperature, water and nitrogen perturbations

Liu

Müller

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replaces the models per se, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yield to CO2 (C), temperature (T), water (W) and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2 experiment. The emulators were able to explain more than 92 % variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CTWN perturbations, the emulators could well reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future, and serving as a lightweight tool of multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulation of crop yield under climate change.

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Biophysical models and meta-modelling to reduce the basis risk in index-based insurance: A case study on winter cereals in Italy

Cited by 7 publications

References 53 publications

Research on a Model for an Empirical Analysis of Inherent Defect Insurance Based on Ruin Theory

Research on a Model for an Empirical Analysis of Inherent Defect Insurance Based on Ruin Theory

Weather Based Index Insurance and Its Role in Agricultural Production

The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO₂, temperature, water and nitrogen perturbations

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Biophysical models and meta-modelling to reduce the basis risk in index-based insurance: A case study on winter cereals in Italy

Cited by 7 publications

References 53 publications

Research on a Model for an Empirical Analysis of Inherent Defect Insurance Based on Ruin Theory

Research on a Model for an Empirical Analysis of Inherent Defect Insurance Based on Ruin Theory

Weather Based Index Insurance and Its Role in Agricultural Production

The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO2, temperature, water and nitrogen perturbations

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO₂, temperature, water and nitrogen perturbations