“Biosphere carbon stock management: Addressing the threat of abrupt climate change in the next few decades.” By Peter Read. An editorial comment.

Leake, John E.

doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9385-6

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Given that the 183 PgC stored in plantation biomass in 2060 exceeds estimates of the total amount of carbon that has been lost to date due to land use change (Houghton, 2008) (much of it from soil), it is not clear that it could be increased further. It has separately been estimated that 192 PgC could be accumulated in 50 years (Leake, 2008) but other sources give only 50-100 PgC (Winjum et al, 1992). Holding the 183 PgC store constant to 2100 (i.e.…”

Section: Afforestation and Reforestationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

2009

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Abstract. Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO 2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO 2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO 2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO 2 sinks, might be able to bring CO 2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO 2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if susCorrespondence to: T. M. Lenton (t.lenton@uea.ac.uk) tained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach provides a common framework for the evaluation of climate geoengineering proposals, and our results should help inform the prioritisation of further research into them.

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Section: Afforestation and Reforestationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

2009

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Section: Afforestation and Reforestationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

Lenton¹,

Vaughan²

2009

Preprint

134

120

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Abstract. Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on the global energy balance and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. Already it reveals some significant errors in existing calculations, and it allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. By 2050, only stratospheric aerosol injections or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state, but some land carbon cycle geoengineering options are of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges". Strong mitigation, i.e. large reductions in CO2 emissions, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition probably has greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach provides a common framework for the evaluation of climate geoengineering proposals, and our results should help inform the prioritisation of further research into them.

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“…Similarly, Ren et al (2005) also suggested a decline in sunshine duration in southeast China during the past 50 yr since 1951. It is worthy to note that the significant browning trends in STG and SEBF were suggestive of decreasing potential of carbon sequestration in these areas, which were usually identified as the most significant natural carbon sinks (Leake, 2008).…”

Section: P Sun Et Al: Climate Change Growing Season Water Deficit mentioning

confidence: 97%

Climate change, growing season water deficit and vegetation activity along the north–south transect of eastern China from 1982 through 2006

Park

Liu

Wei

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Considerable work has been done to examine the relationship between environmental constraints and vegetation activities represented by the remote sensing-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). However, the relationships along either environmental or vegetational gradients are rarely examined. The aim of this paper was to identify the vegetation types that are potentially susceptible to climate change through examining their interactions between vegetation activity and evaporative water deficit. We selected 12 major vegetation types along the north-south transect of eastern China (NSTEC), and tested their time trends in climate change, vegetation activity and water deficit during the period 1982-2006. The result showed significant warming trends accompanied by general precipitation decline in the majority of vegetation types. Despite that the whole transect increased atmospheric evaporative demand (ET 0 ) during the study period, the actual evapotranspiration (ET a ) showed divergent trends with ET 0 in most vegetation types. Warming and water deficit exert counteracting controls on vegetation activity. Our study found insignificant greening trends in cold temperate coniferous forest (CTCF), temperate deciduous shrub (TDS), and three temperate herbaceous types including the meadow steppe (TMS), grass steppe (TGS) and grassland (TG), where warming exerted more effect on NDVI than offset by water deficit. The increasing growing season water deficit posed a limitation on the vegetation activity of temperate coniferous forest (TCF), mixed forest (TMF) and deciduous broad-leaved forest (TDBF). Differently, the growing season brownings in subtropical or tropical forests of coniferous (STCF), deciduous broad-leaved (SDBF), evergreen broad-leaved (SEBF) and subtropical grasslands (STG) were likely attributed to evaporative energy limitation. The growing season water deficit index (GWDI) has been formulated to assess ecohydrological equilibrium and thus indicating vegetation susceptibility to water deficit. The increasing GWDI trends in CTCF, TCF, TDS, TG, TGS and TMS indicated their rising susceptibility to future climate change.

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“Biosphere carbon stock management: Addressing the threat of abrupt climate change in the next few decades.” By Peter Read. An editorial comment.

Cited by 6 publications

References 7 publications

The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

Climate change, growing season water deficit and vegetation activity along the north–south transect of eastern China from 1982 through 2006

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